人心不可收买:阿富汗重建无效

IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Economics of Peace and Security Journal Pub Date : 2014-10-01 DOI:10.15355/EPSJ.9.2.43
T. Child
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引用次数: 25

摘要

最近的研究表明,在阿富汗和伊拉克进行的由外国主导的重建工作可以减少暴力,因为它有助于赢得当地人民的“心灵和思想”。对于阿富汗的情况,我们表明没有证据支持这种断言。分析2005年至2009年全国指挥官应急计划(CERP)支出的独特数据,我们发现重建工作对暴力没有明显的影响。鉴于缺乏CERP成功的经验证据,我们建议重新考虑目前指导美国政策的心灵信条
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Hearts and minds cannot be bought: Ineffective reconstruction in Afghanistan
Recent work has suggested the foreign-led reconstruction effort carried out in Afghanistan and Iraq can mitigate violence because it helps win the “hearts and minds” of local people. For the case of Afghanistan, we show there is no evidence behind such an assertion. Analyzing unique data on Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP) spending across the country from 2005 to 2009, we find no discernible effect of the reconstruction effort on violence. In light of the absence of empirical evidence for the success of the CERP, we suggest the hearts and minds credo currently guiding U.S. policy be reconsidered
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7
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