国际货币基金组织债务可持续性分析:问题和问题

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Journal of Globalization and Development Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI:10.1515/jgd-2015-0034
Martin M Guzman, D. Heymann
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引用次数: 27

摘要

摘要本文回顾了国际货币基金组织债务可持续性分析框架。我们首先考察了债务可持续性的概念,并认为评估工作必然需要对收益率息差体现的市场预期提出质疑。当分析师对债务偿还能力的看法与市场利率溢价所反映的观点不同时,使用市场利率来评估债务可持续性会导致不一致,从而使评估产生偏差。然后,我们表明,国际货币基金组织评估债务可持续性的预测一再存在偏差,这可能导致主权债务重组的时间和随后的重新谈判过程被扭曲。最后,我们讨论了如何改进现有的DSA框架。
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The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis: Issues and Problems
Abstract This paper reviews the IMF DSA (Debt Sustainability Analysis) framework. We first examine the concept of debt sustainability, and argue that the evaluation exercise necessarily entails putting into question market expectations embodied in yield spreads. When the views of the analyst on the capacity of debt repayment differ from the ones reflected in market interest rate premiums, the use of market interest rates for assessing debt sustainability leads to an inconsistency that will in turn bias the assessment. We then show that IMF projections for assessing debt sustainability have been repeatedly biased, which may have contributed to distort the timing of sovereign debt restructurings and the consequent processes of renegotiation. We conclude with a discussion on how the existing DSA framework could be improved.
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来源期刊
Journal of Globalization and Development
Journal of Globalization and Development Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
1.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: The Journal of Globalization and Development (JGD) publishes academic research and policy analysis on globalization, development, and in particular the complex interactions between them. The journal is dedicated to stimulating a creative dialogue between theoretical advances and rigorous empirical studies to push forward the frontiers of development analysis. It also seeks to combine innovative academic insights with the in-depth knowledge of practitioners to address important policy issues. JGD encourages diverse perspectives on all aspects of development and globalization, and attempts to integrate the best development research from across different fields with contributions from scholars in developing and developed countries. Topics: -Economic development- Financial investments- Development Aid- Development policies- Growth models- Sovereign debt
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