最好的投资者的巨额市场利润可以用彩票中奖者的运气来解释吗?

Tommi P. Laiho
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在1994-1996年间,我开始思考在股票、外汇和相应的衍生品交易中运气有多大的意义。因此,我开发了一个简单的公式,它描述了在动荡的市场投资时,如果你有罕见的彩票中奖者的运气,你的资本可以增长多少。最后,我发现,你确实需要像芬兰彩票中奖者那样的运气,才能将你的小资本扩张到极高的水平,尤其是在与高度波动的股指衍生品交易时。如果我们假设市场是完全竞争的,极不稳定的,并且在试图以有利可图的方式进行交易时,甚至内幕信息都是无用的,通过使用这个简单的公式,我们可以看到,即使是相对少量的资本也可以增长到极其庞大的资金。
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Can huge market profits of the best investors be explained by a lottery winner's luck?
In the years 1994-1996, I started to think about how much meaning luck has when trading stocks, FOREX, and corresponding derivatives. Therefore, I developed a simple formula, which describes how much your capital can grow if you have a rare lottery winner’s luck when investing in volatile markets. In the end I found that indeed, you need the luck of a Finnish lottery winner to expand your little capital to extreme heights, especially when trading with highly volatile stock index derivatives. If we assume that markets are fully competitive, extremely volatile, and even inside information is useless when trying to trade in a profitable way, by using this simple formula, we can see that even a relatively small amount of capital can grow to an extremely large sum of money.
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