Análise Prospectiva da Indústria Bancária no Brasil: Regulação, Concentração e Tecnologia

This paper aims to analyze three configuration variables of the competitive environment of commercial banks in Brazil: regulation, industry concentration and technology. Semi-structured interviews and a Delphi Panel were conducted with thirteen experts from the banking industry, including executives, managers and academics. Through content analysis, the main results highlighted were: a tendency for maintenance of industry concentration with restricted spaces for small- and medium-sized banks; possible disruptions in the competitive arena due to new technologies and the consolidation of the cell phone as the main catalyst of bank transactions and means of payment. The research supports the theoretical arguments about the ephemerality of strategic groups and contributes to the discussion and choice for coherent indicators to measure competitive advantage in commercial banks.