考虑气候变化情景的托坎廷斯州大豆分布的前瞻性分析

IF 0.8 Q3 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pesquisa Agropecuaria Tropical Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1590/1983-40632022v5272969
André de Moura Andrade, E. Collicchio
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引用次数: 0

摘要

大豆是巴西经济中供需最大的农业能源作物之一。尽管生产力曲线上的正斜率一直可见,但对耕地的需求正在急剧变化,不可避免地促进了森林砍伐行为,并对自然生物地球化学循环(如碳循环)产生了有害影响。一些环境模型被用来解释这些复杂的现象,其变量作为经济、社会和自然因素的函数在空间和时间上发生变化。因此,本研究旨在利用领土动力学模型(Dinamica EGO),在Tocantins州可持续利用保护单元所在地区,考虑不同的气候风险情景,基于需水满足指数(WRSI),利用MIROC5全球气候模型的日平均降雨量和温度数据计算大豆种植区。WRSI促进了对Ilha do Bananal/ cant、Lago de Palmas和Serra do Lajeado等环境保护区周围自然资源的更大开发。此外,预计在一些公认的大豆生产中心,大豆种植面积可能会减少,而且在不久的将来,该物种的种植区与jalap保护区的距离会更远,这已经成为市场通常需要的大豆产量的高气候风险。
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Prospective analysis of soybean distribution in the Tocantins state considering climate change scenarios
ABSTRACT Soybean is one of the agroenergy crops of greatest supply and demand in the Brazilian economy. Even though positive slopes in the productivity curves are constantly perceptible, the demands for arable land are evolving wildly, inevitably promoting deforestation actions and deleterious effects on the natural biogeochemical cycles, such as the carbon cycle. Several environmental models are used to explain these complex phenomena, whose variables change spatially and temporally as a function of economic, social and natural factors. Therefore, this study aimed at prospecting the soybean cultivation area using a territorial dynamics model (Dinamica EGO), in regions where sustainable use conservation units are located in the Tocantins state, considering different climate risk scenarios based on the water requirement satisfaction indexes (WRSI), calculated using daily average rainfall and temperature data from the MIROC5 global climate model. The WRSI contributed to a greater exploitation of natural resources around the environmental preservation areas of Ilha do Bananal/ Cantão, Lago de Palmas and Serra do Lajeado. Furthermore, a possible decrease in the soybean area in some recognized producing centers was prospected, as well as a scenario of greater distancing of this species cultivated areas, in a near future, from the mosaic of conservation units of Jalapão, which has become of high climatic risk for the soybean grain yields usually demanded by the market.
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来源期刊
Pesquisa Agropecuaria Tropical
Pesquisa Agropecuaria Tropical AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
20.00%
发文量
26
审稿时长
20 weeks
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