自然利率和货币利率

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS Economists Voice Pub Date : 2020-11-10 DOI:10.1515/ev-2019-0028
Ulrich van Suntum
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引用次数: 2

摘要

长期的利率下降引发了一个问题,后者是储蓄过剩的结果,还是货币过剩的结果,还是两者兼而有之。此外,它重新提出了一个老问题,即自然利率应该如何合理地定义,以及自然利率是否会低于增长率,从而导致动态效率低下。本文在纯理论基础上对这一争论做出了贡献,将实证问题留给其他研究。特别是,我简要地讨论了Böhm-Bawerk在私人易货经济中存在利率的三个原因。我认为,即使在一个既有公共部门又有货币的经济体中,自然利率仍然是一个有意义的概念。从福利经济学的角度来看,只要利率不低于增长率,它也比所谓的黄金法则更可取。虽然自然利率在原则上很可能因过度储蓄而变为负值,但当土地或贵金属等耐用品可用于储存私人财富时,这种情况通常是可以避免的。另一方面,即使从长期来看,发行信贷货币往往会将利率压低至自然水平以下。为了防止这种情况发生,人们要么用中立的“直升机撒钱”(helicopter money)来取代它,要么回归金本位。
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Natural Interest Rate and Money Interest Rates
Abstract The long lasting period of declining interest rates raises the question, whether the latter result from a savings glut, from a money glut, or from both. Moreover, it renewed the old question how the natural interest rate should be sensibly defined, and if it could ever fall below the growth rate, thereby causing dynamic inefficiency. The present article contributes to this debate on a pure theoretical base, leaving the empirical issue for other research. In particular, I briefly discuss Böhm-Bawerk’s three causes for the existence of an interest rate in a private barter economy. I argue that the natural interest rate remains a meaningful concept even in an economy with both a public sector and money. From a welfare economic view, it is also preferable above the so-called golden rule, provided the interest rate does not fall below the growth rate. Although the natural interest rate could well get negative by excess saving in principle, this is normally prevented when durable goods like land or precious metals are available for storing private wealth. On the other hand, issuing credit money tends to push the interest rate below its natural level, even in the long run. In order to prevent this, one could either replace it by neutral helicopter money or return to a gold currency.
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来源期刊
Economists Voice
Economists Voice ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
1.10
自引率
25.00%
发文量
9
期刊介绍: This journal is a non-partisan forum for economists to present innovative policy ideas or engaging commentary on the issues of the day. Readers include professional economists, lawyers, policy analysts, policymakers, and students of economics. Articles are short, 600-2000 words, and are intended to contain deeper analysis than is found on the Op-Ed page of the Wall Street Journal or New York Times, but to be of comparable general interest. We welcome submitted Columns from any professional economist. Letters to the editor are encouraged and may comment on any Column or Letter. Letters must be less than 300 words.
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