全球秩序形成的新阶段

Q1 Arts and Humanities Mezhdunarodnye Protsessy Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.17994/it.2021.19.3.66.6
T. Shakleina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在特朗普执政期间,美国的进攻性自由世界秩序形成战略短暂放缓后,拜登总统宣布民主党将推行建立自由世界秩序的进攻性战略。拜登的宣言和最负盛名的智库的建议证明,美国准备开始一场新的决定性大国竞争,以实现和巩固优势和全能地位,不惜一切代价取得不可逆转的结果,夸大中国和俄罗斯。为了完成这一雄心勃勃的任务,民主党人提出了军事和外交手段相结合的政策。假设如下:大国竞争不是世界政治中的新现象,但当代国际发展阶段可以定义为“新的多层次可治理竞争”,美国将试图决定/规划世界发展、发展和各国组织的政策。当代世界的一个重要特征是三个大国之间的竞争具有新的性质和更大的规模。这也是国际环境的新质量和密度:中小国家在美国、中国、俄罗斯和其他一些有影响力的国家中获得更重要的地位,并利用新的条件获得特权操纵。美国规划战略的主要目的是尽可能限制中国和俄罗斯的机动空间,防止形成“欧亚中心”,影响其他国家的选择,有利于西方/美国。国际形势似乎对美国相当有利,但在完成雄心勃勃的全球攻势和规划治理任务时,过度劳累和过度扩张的危险仍然存在。当前局势的“神经”在于俄罗斯和中国能否站起来反对美国的政策,抵消其影响。目前尚不清楚其他新兴大国和中等国家将如何应对。未来几十年将是当代世界秩序形成的决定性时期。
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New Stage in the Global Order Formation
After short slowdown of the US offensive liberal world order formation strategy during the Trump administration, President Biden declared that democrats would pursue offensive strategy of establishing liberal world order. J. Biden’s declarations and recommendations prepared by most prestigious think tanks testify to the fact that the United States are ready to start a new decisive great power competition to achieve and consolidate predominance and omnipower status, to stake everything to achieve irreversible results and overplay China and Russia. To fulfill this ambitious task, democrats suggest policy that combines military and diplomatic instruments. The hypothesis is the following: great power competition is not a new phenomenon in world politics, however contemporary stage of international development can be defined as “new multilevel governable competition” when the United States will try to determine/program world development, development and policies of various countries and organizations. One of the important characteristics of contemporary period is not only new quality and greater scale of competition between three great powers. It is also new quality and density of international milieu: medium range and small countries have got more important status and use new conditions for getting privileges maneuvering among US, China, Russia and some other influential players. The primary aim of the American programming strategy is to restrict as much as possible maneuvering space for China and Russia, preventing formation of “Eurasian center”, to influence the choice of other countries in favor of the West/US. The international situation seems to be rather favorable for the United States, but the danger of overexertion and overextension in fulfilling ambitious task of global offensive and programming governance remains. The “nerve” of the present situation is whether Russia and China can stand against American policy, neutralize its effect. It is not quite clear how other growing powers and medium range countries will act. Coming decades will be decisive for the formation of contemporary world order.
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来源期刊
Mezhdunarodnye Protsessy
Mezhdunarodnye Protsessy Arts and Humanities-History
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
审稿时长
34 weeks
期刊介绍: “International Trends” (“Mezhdunarodnye protsessy”) was established in 2002 as the first Russian TIR journal. As of the early 2010s, it holds a strong position among the top three Russian thematic academic journals (according to the Russian Science Citation Index). The Journal’s key mission is a theoretical comprehension of the world as a whole, of international tendencies and the planetary political environment, and of the world-integrity our country finds herself in and develops with.
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