评估打击洗黑钱工作成效的创新方法

IF 1.2 Q4 MANAGEMENT Marketing and Management of Innovations Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.21272/mmi.2023.2-21
Z. Juhászová, A. Boyko, V. Bozhenko, S. Mynenko, A. Buriak, N. Vynnychenko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文总结了关于完善反洗钱制度问题的科学辩论中的论点和反对意见。这项研究的主要目标是评估该系统在打击洗钱方面的有效性。本文按照以下逻辑顺序对反洗钱制度有效性评价问题进行了研究:信息库的形成;确定最终事件,作为系统打击洗钱有效性的标准;建立生存表,规定法院对财务监测问题作出判决的可能性;评估该制度在打击洗钱方面的体制改革的有效性。使用生存分析方法或生存表Kaplan-Meier法进行研究。根据乌克兰的财务监测数据,批准了评估该系统打击洗钱有效性的科学方法;研究期间为2009年至2022年。在此基础上,确定了洗钱罪逃避处罚的时间间隔和确定的概率。本文的作者根据经验确定,随着犯罪时间与法院定罪时间之间的时间增加,法院不被定罪的概率降低。如果过了3年零7个月,被判有罪的概率为50.9%。根据所得的计算,近年来在打击洗黑钱工作的组织和职能组成方面所作的改变,可提高打击洗黑钱工作的质素。进一步的研究应针对打击洗钱制度的体制部分的结构要素进行详细分析,以查明每一阶段的弱点:财务监测、调查和司法制度。
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An Innovative Approach to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Combating Money Laundering
The article summarises the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific debate on the issue of improving the system of combating money laundering. The research’s primary goal is to evaluate the system’s effectiveness in combating money laundering. The study of the issue of evaluating the system’s effectiveness for combating money laundering is carried out in the article in the following logical sequence: informative base forming; determination of terminal events as criteria for the system’s effectiveness for combating money laundering; survival tables construction, which provide for the probability of a court verdict on financial monitoring issues; evaluation of the system’s effectiveness of institutional changes in combating money laundering. Survival analysis methods or survival tables, the Kaplan-Meier method, were used to conduct the research. The developed scientific-methodical approach to evaluating the system’s effectiveness for combating money laundering was approved based on financial monitoring data in Ukraine; the study period was 2009-2022. The time intervals and established probabilities of avoiding punishment for the crime of money laundering were defined based on the analysis. The authors of the article empirically determined that with an increase in the time between the time of the commission of the crime and the time of the court’s conviction, the probability that the court will not be convicted decreases. If three years and seven months pass after the crime, the probability of a guilty verdict will be 50.9%. Based on the obtained calculations, the changes in the organisational and functional composition of the combating money laundering implemented in recent years could have improved the quality of combating money laundering. Further research should be directed to a detailed analysis of the structural elements in the institutional part of the system of combating money laundering to identify the weaknesses of each stage: financial monitoring, investigation and the judicial system.
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