The demographic impact of the HIV / AIDS epidemic in Papua New Guinea 1990-2030.

The first case of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Papua New Guinea was detected in the capital in 1987. After a relatively short period during which the epidemic was concentrated in certain "high-risk" groups the disease spread throughout the country and by 2005 had become a "generalized epidemic" - with a 1 per cent HIV prevalence rate among adults aged 15-49. The most recent (2007) estimates suggest that the adult prevalence rate has risen to 1.6 per cent confirming that the epidemic is continuing to grow rapidly. The scale of the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic in the country has reached the point where future demographic patterns are likely to be affected possibly severely. Among the demographic impacts to be expected based on the experience of other countries with generalized epidemics are an increase in the number of deaths particularly among young adults leading in turn to reduced life expectancy. The rate of population growth will drop as a higher death rate reduces the rate of natural increase. The number of births can also be expected to decline owing to the impaired fecundity of HIV positive women. Changes to the age structure follow from the concentration of excess AIDS mortality in the young adult age groups. (excerpt)