From unification to national revival: China’s contemporary approach to the Taiwan problem

Mainland China’s policy towards Taiwan demonstrates a high degree of continuity. As new problems arise, new priorities are put forward. During Xi Jinping's tenure as China’s leader, the goal of reunifying the country has been proclaimed a necessary component of the national revival, while the search for a Taiwanese version of the “one country, two systems” model has been launched and the approach to independence supporters has become markedly tougher. Mainland China’s past hopes to achieve reunification primarily through Beijing’s material strength and prospects for economic integration are facing unforeseen obstacles, while political and cultural issues are becoming increasingly important. The reunification scenarios offered to Taiwan are increasingly rigid and are reduced to a choice between retaining limited powers in the case of a peaceful scenario or losing even those powers if military force is applied. Chinese experts continue to look for ways to facilitate rapprochement between the mainland’s and Taiwan’s societies to win over supporters of unification and to attract a wide range of opponents of independence. Meanwhile, Beijing is seriously concerned about the ongoing “de-Sinicization” of the Taiwanese identity. Mainland China has not yet learned how to project the Chinese cultural tradition outward, and its efforts to achieve social integration of Taiwan continue to focus on material incentives. Experts from the mainland China increasingly agree that Beijing’s old instruments of non-conflict rapprochement with the island are rapidly losing their effectiveness, while new mechanisms are slow to emerge. Mainland China’s politicians and experts are concerned about the prospect of irreversible changes in the identity of the island’s inhabitants and believe that it is unacceptable to postpone the reunification endlessly. 从统一到民族复兴：当前中国看待台湾问题的视角 中国政府对台政策具有高度连续性。随着形势的变化，中国政府对台政策有了新的首要目标。习近平执政后，国家统一上升为民族复兴的必要组成部分，同时开始积极探索“一国两制”的台湾方案，对台独支持者的态度明显变得更加强硬。中国大陆曾希望依靠物质实力和经济一体化促进两岸统一，现在这一可能面临难以预知的困难，而政治和文化问题变得越来越重要。大陆提供给台湾的统一方案越来越严格，其实质在于，在和平统一情况下，台湾当局可保留有限权力，而通过武力统一后，台湾将不会再拥有这些权力，台湾当局需在两者之间做出选择。中国专家学者继续寻求大陆与台湾社会和解的方式，以赢得统一派之心并吸引广泛的台独反对者。与此同时，北京对台湾岛内人群身份认同的持续“去中国化”深感震惊。中国大陆尚未学会如何将中国文化传统向外传播，其融入台湾社会的努力仍然继续集中在物质激励上。越来越多的中国专家认为，大陆使用的与该岛建立非冲突和解的旧工具正在迅速失效，而新机制的建立滞后。中国大陆的政界人士和专家学者担心岛内居民的身份认同可能发生不可逆转的变化，所以认为无休止地推迟两岸统一是不可接受的。