Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-126-146
I. Starodubtsev
In May 2023, general presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Turkey, as a result of which the ruling government in confirmed its authority: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan retained his post and his People’s Alliance received a majority in the Grand National Assembly (Mejlis). The victory turned out to be difficult for the Turkish authorities. R.T.Erdogan won in two rounds of voting in a fierce competition with opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. However, while powerful People’s Alliance retained its majority in the Mejlis, it failed to get the desired qualified majority, having lost the opportunity to adopt a new Constitution within the next five years to replace the one in force since 1982. Elections in Turkey took place against the background of the largest earthquake in the country’s modern history that occurred on February 6, 2023 and the elimination of its consequences. The purpose of this article is to determine the consequences of the earthquake for Turkey’s domestic politics in terms of the course and results of the general presidential and parliamentary elections and the impact on domestic political situation for the five-year term of the newly elected president and the Mejlis in 2023–2028. Results of the national development during the 20-year period of Erdogan’s and Justice and Development Party’s rule are inspected. Based on the analysis of program documents, pledges and statements by the government and opposition, the impact of the earthquake on political processes in Turkey and on the turn of the Turkish voters’ attention to domestic issues is explored. The article marks an increase in nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments in Turkey, regardless of the political views of the Turkish electorate, and suggests that these sentiments will continue to play a significant role in the coming years.
{"title":"Earthquake in Turkey: impact on domestic politics and the May 2023 elections","authors":"I. Starodubtsev","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-126-146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-126-146","url":null,"abstract":"In May 2023, general presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Turkey, as a result of which the ruling government in confirmed its authority: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan retained his post and his People’s Alliance received a majority in the Grand National Assembly (Mejlis). The victory turned out to be difficult for the Turkish authorities. R.T.Erdogan won in two rounds of voting in a fierce competition with opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. However, while powerful People’s Alliance retained its majority in the Mejlis, it failed to get the desired qualified majority, having lost the opportunity to adopt a new Constitution within the next five years to replace the one in force since 1982. Elections in Turkey took place against the background of the largest earthquake in the country’s modern history that occurred on February 6, 2023 and the elimination of its consequences. The purpose of this article is to determine the consequences of the earthquake for Turkey’s domestic politics in terms of the course and results of the general presidential and parliamentary elections and the impact on domestic political situation for the five-year term of the newly elected president and the Mejlis in 2023–2028. Results of the national development during the 20-year period of Erdogan’s and Justice and Development Party’s rule are inspected. Based on the analysis of program documents, pledges and statements by the government and opposition, the impact of the earthquake on political processes in Turkey and on the turn of the Turkish voters’ attention to domestic issues is explored. The article marks an increase in nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments in Turkey, regardless of the political views of the Turkish electorate, and suggests that these sentiments will continue to play a significant role in the coming years.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-111-125
V. Avatkov, R. Guzaerov
The article analyzes Turkey’s policy in the framework of the Syrian crisis. The Arab Spring brought dramatic changes to the region, and Syria has since become an area of never ending conflict. At the first stage of the war in Syria, Ankara demonstrated a moderate position in relation to the events in that country, but it soon turned to harsh criticism of the B.Assad regime. Special attention is paid to Turkish military operations in Syria. The interaction with Russia and the United States within the framework of the Syrian settlement is analyzed. The issue of Syrian refugees and their impact on Turkey EU relations are also discussed. It is concluded that in the context of the 2023 elections Ankara has moved to a more constructive position on the Syrian crisis.
{"title":"The Syria crisis in Turkey’s foreign policy","authors":"V. Avatkov, R. Guzaerov","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-111-125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-111-125","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes Turkey’s policy in the framework of the Syrian crisis. The Arab Spring brought dramatic changes to the region, and Syria has since become an area of never ending conflict. At the first stage of the war in Syria, Ankara demonstrated a moderate position in relation to the events in that country, but it soon turned to harsh criticism of the B.Assad regime. Special attention is paid to Turkish military operations in Syria. The interaction with Russia and the United States within the framework of the Syrian settlement is analyzed. The issue of Syrian refugees and their impact on Turkey EU relations are also discussed. It is concluded that in the context of the 2023 elections Ankara has moved to a more constructive position on the Syrian crisis.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-205-214
S. Rastol'tsev
Review of: Voina sredi sten [War within the Walls]. Eds. A.V.Lavrov, R.N.Pukhov. Мoscow: Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, 2022
回顾:Voina sredi sten[城墙内的战争]。Eds。A.V.Lavrov R.N.Pukhov。Мoscow:战略与技术分析中心，2022
{"title":"Fighting in urban settings","authors":"S. Rastol'tsev","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-205-214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-205-214","url":null,"abstract":"Review of: Voina sredi sten [War within the Walls]. Eds. A.V.Lavrov, R.N.Pukhov. Мoscow: Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, 2022","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-58-75
D. Karakus
In the 2010s, violent Islamist actors have become increasingly involved in intrastate armed conflicts, but little is known about how these conflicts can be resolved. Previous studies have found that negotiations are less likely to be successful in resolving armed conflicts that involve violent Islamists. Ceasefires are another tool of conflict resolution related to negotiation that may be reached before, during, or after the negotiation process. This article investigates the conditions for reaching ceasefire agreements with Islamist armed groups in Syria by expanding the author’s earlier dataset, codifying the data, and using logistic regression analysis to test three main hypotheses. From 2011 to 2021, 141 local ceasefire agreements were reached in 190 distinct locations during the Syrian сivil war, comprising about half of the agreements reached with Islamist armed actors. The finding is that such actors were more receptive to a ceasefire if the drafting of agreements prioritized (a) humanitarian considerations above tactical ones and (b) gradual implementation as opposed to immediate. Long-lasting sieges, fighting exhaustion, and the associated public pressure on combatants may further explain why humanitarian incentives are motivating for agreements. The gradual pace of implementation might be attributed to efforts made to create confidence. In contrast, as anticipated by earlier studies, the involvement of third parties does not significantly explain a relationship to achieve a ceasefire with these armed actors.
{"title":"Resolution of local conflicts involving armed Islamists: the Syrian civil war, 2011–2021","authors":"D. Karakus","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-58-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-58-75","url":null,"abstract":"In the 2010s, violent Islamist actors have become increasingly involved in intrastate armed conflicts, but little is known about how these conflicts can be resolved. Previous studies have found that negotiations are less likely to be successful in resolving armed conflicts that involve violent Islamists. Ceasefires are another tool of conflict resolution related to negotiation that may be reached before, during, or after the negotiation process. This article investigates the conditions for reaching ceasefire agreements with Islamist armed groups in Syria by expanding the author’s earlier dataset, codifying the data, and using logistic regression analysis to test three main hypotheses. From 2011 to 2021, 141 local ceasefire agreements were reached in 190 distinct locations during the Syrian сivil war, comprising about half of the agreements reached with Islamist armed actors. The finding is that such actors were more receptive to a ceasefire if the drafting of agreements prioritized (a) humanitarian considerations above tactical ones and (b) gradual implementation as opposed to immediate. Long-lasting sieges, fighting exhaustion, and the associated public pressure on combatants may further explain why humanitarian incentives are motivating for agreements. The gradual pace of implementation might be attributed to efforts made to create confidence. In contrast, as anticipated by earlier studies, the involvement of third parties does not significantly explain a relationship to achieve a ceasefire with these armed actors.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-11-30
M. Yevtodyeva
The article discusses key trends in military assistance and transfers of weapons and military equipment (WME) by Western countries to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s Special Military Operation in February 2022. The study relies on official information about military assistance and arms transfers that has been disclosed by the governments of WME supplying countries. Focusing on this data, the article analyses country specifics, quantitative characteristics, composition, and types of transferred weapons systems, as well as key financial mechanisms of WME supply and military aid to Ukraine. Also, the ratio between military and other types of assistance is discussed. Some conclusions are made about the prospects of Western arms transfers to Ukraine.
{"title":"Western military assistance and arms transfers to Ukraine in 2022 – early 2023: key trends","authors":"M. Yevtodyeva","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-11-30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-11-30","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses key trends in military assistance and transfers of weapons and military equipment (WME) by Western countries to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s Special Military Operation in February 2022. The study relies on official information about military assistance and arms transfers that has been disclosed by the governments of WME supplying countries. Focusing on this data, the article analyses country specifics, quantitative characteristics, composition, and types of transferred weapons systems, as well as key financial mechanisms of WME supply and military aid to Ukraine. Also, the ratio between military and other types of assistance is discussed. Some conclusions are made about the prospects of Western arms transfers to Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-31-47
A. Kudashkin, I. Kholikov
Special military operations are associated with the establishment of a special legal regime in a certain territory or in relation to certain actions, as well as with the special activities of collective subjects and military officials. Difficulties in international legal and law enforcement conceptualization give rise to various forms of legal understanding of the phenomenon of “special military operation”. The article discusses interrelated conceptual, legal, and institutional issues of special military operations, including the way they apply to Russia’s special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine at different stages of legal regulation. In terms of differentiation of the legal regulation’s object, SMO is already regulated by over 30 federal laws and subsidiary legislation acts, and this list continues to grow. The specifics of the formation of special legislation on SMO that forms a separate subject area of the Russian law is revealed. Specialization of legislation first manifested itself at the level of individual legal norms (such as military award procedures in SMO area) and sub-institutions (such as ensuring monetary and social security of its participants, partial mobilization procedures etc.), with subsequent optimization and integration of legal regulation into single legal institution of SMO. Legal regulation problems in the field of military confrontation in cyber-space and at sea actualized by SMO are also addressed. The authors conclude that some features of social relations to be regulated in the case of SMO require certain legal norms and the method of legal regulation to be revised, as the existing legal mechanisms do not always function effectively.
{"title":"Conceptualizing special military operations in contemporary law","authors":"A. Kudashkin, I. Kholikov","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-31-47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-31-47","url":null,"abstract":"Special military operations are associated with the establishment of a special legal regime in a certain territory or in relation to certain actions, as well as with the special activities of collective subjects and military officials. Difficulties in international legal and law enforcement conceptualization give rise to various forms of legal understanding of the phenomenon of “special military operation”. The article discusses interrelated conceptual, legal, and institutional issues of special military operations, including the way they apply to Russia’s special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine at different stages of legal regulation. In terms of differentiation of the legal regulation’s object, SMO is already regulated by over 30 federal laws and subsidiary legislation acts, and this list continues to grow. The specifics of the formation of special legislation on SMO that forms a separate subject area of the Russian law is revealed. Specialization of legislation first manifested itself at the level of individual legal norms (such as military award procedures in SMO area) and sub-institutions (such as ensuring monetary and social security of its participants, partial mobilization procedures etc.), with subsequent optimization and integration of legal regulation into single legal institution of SMO. Legal regulation problems in the field of military confrontation in cyber-space and at sea actualized by SMO are also addressed. The authors conclude that some features of social relations to be regulated in the case of SMO require certain legal norms and the method of legal regulation to be revised, as the existing legal mechanisms do not always function effectively.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-48-57
K. Babaev
The article presents an analysis of the peace initiative to resolve the Ukrainian crisis put forward by People’s Republic of China (PRC) in February 2023. The initiative has attracted notable international attention and has been widely discussed both in the media and expert circles, as well as at political consultations of the world leaders. The article aims to show the significance of this peace initiative for China’s broader foreign policy and international relations and to demonstrate a major increase in China's foreign policy activity and international influence observed in recent years. In particular, by launching this and several other diplomatic initiatives in 2022–2023, Beijing has sought to put into practice the provisions on “responsibility for the future of the world” declared by Chairman Xi Jinping. The PRC’s peace plan for Ukraine is one of the important components of the “Global Security Initiative” concept proposed by Xi Jinping. The concept marks a new stage in China’s foreign policy by positioning it as one of the world’s largest powers with global interests. The article also assesses the prospects of China’s peace initiative in terms of its impact on resolving the Ukrainian crisis. 中国对乌克兰的和平方案是该国外交政策的体现 这篇文章是对中华人民共和国领导人于2023年2月提出关于乌克兰危机的和平方案的分析。该倡议已成为一个突出的国际事件，在媒体和专家界以及世界领导人的政治磋商层面得到广泛讨论。文章旨在说明中国的和平倡议对中国外交政策和国际关系发展的意义，并在此背景下展示近年来中国外交政策活动和国际影响力的显着增长。特别是，通过这一倡议和2022-2023年提出的其他一些外交倡议，北京正在寻求将中国领导人习近平提出的"对世界未来的责任"的规定付诸实践。中国提出的关于乌克兰危机的和平方案是习近平提出的"全球安全倡议"构想的重要组成部分之一。该和平方案标志着中国外交政策的一个新阶段，即把自己定位为一个具有全球利益的世界大国。本文还评估了中国和平倡议对解决乌克兰危机前景的影响。
{"title":"China’s peace initiative on Ukraine in the context of Chinese foreign policy","authors":"K. Babaev","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-48-57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-48-57","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents an analysis of the peace initiative to resolve the Ukrainian crisis put forward by People’s Republic of China (PRC) in February 2023. The initiative has attracted notable international attention and has been widely discussed both in the media and expert circles, as well as at political consultations of the world leaders. The article aims to show the significance of this peace initiative for China’s broader foreign policy and international relations and to demonstrate a major increase in China's foreign policy activity and international influence observed in recent years. In particular, by launching this and several other diplomatic initiatives in 2022–2023, Beijing has sought to put into practice the provisions on “responsibility for the future of the world” declared by Chairman Xi Jinping. The PRC’s peace plan for Ukraine is one of the important components of the “Global Security Initiative” concept proposed by Xi Jinping. The concept marks a new stage in China’s foreign policy by positioning it as one of the world’s largest powers with global interests. The article also assesses the prospects of China’s peace initiative in terms of its impact on resolving the Ukrainian crisis. 中国对乌克兰的和平方案是该国外交政策的体现 这篇文章是对中华人民共和国领导人于2023年2月提出关于乌克兰危机的和平方案的分析。该倡议已成为一个突出的国际事件，在媒体和专家界以及世界领导人的政治磋商层面得到广泛讨论。文章旨在说明中国的和平倡议对中国外交政策和国际关系发展的意义，并在此背景下展示近年来中国外交政策活动和国际影响力的显着增长。特别是，通过这一倡议和2022-2023年提出的其他一些外交倡议，北京正在寻求将中国领导人习近平提出的\"对世界未来的责任\"的规定付诸实践。中国提出的关于乌克兰危机的和平方案是习近平提出的\"全球安全倡议\"构想的重要组成部分之一。该和平方案标志着中国外交政策的一个新阶段，即把自己定位为一个具有全球利益的世界大国。本文还评估了中国和平倡议对解决乌克兰危机前景的影响。","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-76-110
A. Vogel
The Syrian uprisings in 2011 transformed into a fragmented, internationalized, and highly intensive civil war. The confrontation in Syria involved numerous local forces, regional stakeholders and outside powers. Among those various actors, Türkiye, Russia, and Iran played the key role in shaping the outcome of the conflict. Despite support by Russia/Iran and Turkey to the opposite sides in a civil war, the three powers successfully delineated their respective spheres of influence and established a modus vivendi to coexist and co-manage the conflict in Syria. The trio has worked as equals, checking and balancing each other in their actions in the Syrian Arab Republic. As the crisis in Ukraine escalated, a new geopolitical reality emerged, affecting the Syrian theater and the related balance between three leading external actors. Russia’s decreased focus on Syria led to an expanding Iran, disturbing the balance of power and pushing Israel to intervene more assertively. Erupting competition between Ankara and Tehran could also lead to escalation. This article attempts to provide a picture of the complex triangular interplay between the Islamic Republic of Iran, Russia, and Türkiye in Syria. It outlines the divergent and converging interests of the three as well as their actions and policies vis-à-vis Syria. The work explores whether antagonistic aspirations are bridged or not and investigates where the potential for escalation lies.
{"title":"Russian–Iranian–Turkish trilateral relations in the Syrian civil war","authors":"A. Vogel","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-76-110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-76-110","url":null,"abstract":"The Syrian uprisings in 2011 transformed into a fragmented, internationalized, and highly intensive civil war. The confrontation in Syria involved numerous local forces, regional stakeholders and outside powers. Among those various actors, Türkiye, Russia, and Iran played the key role in shaping the outcome of the conflict. Despite support by Russia/Iran and Turkey to the opposite sides in a civil war, the three powers successfully delineated their respective spheres of influence and established a modus vivendi to coexist and co-manage the conflict in Syria. The trio has worked as equals, checking and balancing each other in their actions in the Syrian Arab Republic. As the crisis in Ukraine escalated, a new geopolitical reality emerged, affecting the Syrian theater and the related balance between three leading external actors. Russia’s decreased focus on Syria led to an expanding Iran, disturbing the balance of power and pushing Israel to intervene more assertively. Erupting competition between Ankara and Tehran could also lead to escalation. This article attempts to provide a picture of the complex triangular interplay between the Islamic Republic of Iran, Russia, and Türkiye in Syria. It outlines the divergent and converging interests of the three as well as their actions and policies vis-à-vis Syria. The work explores whether antagonistic aspirations are bridged or not and investigates where the potential for escalation lies.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-147-166
V. Akhmedov
The article analyses the evolution of different aspects of the Iran-Israeli relations in the context of the Syrian crisis. Main stages in development of the Iran-Israeli contacts are shown and their specifics are analyzed retrospectively. Key internal and external factors of influence on the nature of bilateral relations are examined. The author concludes that it is regional and broader international politics in the Middle East that primarily determined the nature of the Iran-Israel relations rather than religious, ethnic, and cultural differences between the two nations. Perceptions of external threats and defense of national sovereignty and territorial integrity played a critical role in bilateral relations. During the first three decades (from the late 1940s until the late 1970s), contacts between Tel-Aviv and Tehran were amicable. However, the dominant Arab environment, in which the relations between Iran and Israel evolved, in many ways predetermined their slide to confrontation, especially after the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. In the following decades, hostility in bilateral relation intensified, but remained geographically confined to the Levant. The Syria crisis reactivated the conflict potential in the Middle East and led to escalation of the Iran-Israel confrontation. In 2021–2022, it acquired new forms and expanded to other parts of the Middle East and South Caucasus. In the first months of 2023, the armed conflict between Iran and Israel entered a critical phase and brought the Middle East to the brink of a new “Big War”. However, steps taken in the Spring of 2023 by leading regional and international powers gave a positive impulse to international developments in the Middle East that might reduce the degree of tension in the Iran-Israel relations.
{"title":"Evolution of the Iran-Israel relations in the context of the Syria crisis","authors":"V. Akhmedov","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-147-166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-147-166","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyses the evolution of different aspects of the Iran-Israeli relations in the context of the Syrian crisis. Main stages in development of the Iran-Israeli contacts are shown and their specifics are analyzed retrospectively. Key internal and external factors of influence on the nature of bilateral relations are examined. The author concludes that it is regional and broader international politics in the Middle East that primarily determined the nature of the Iran-Israel relations rather than religious, ethnic, and cultural differences between the two nations. Perceptions of external threats and defense of national sovereignty and territorial integrity played a critical role in bilateral relations. During the first three decades (from the late 1940s until the late 1970s), contacts between Tel-Aviv and Tehran were amicable. However, the dominant Arab environment, in which the relations between Iran and Israel evolved, in many ways predetermined their slide to confrontation, especially after the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. In the following decades, hostility in bilateral relation intensified, but remained geographically confined to the Levant. The Syria crisis reactivated the conflict potential in the Middle East and led to escalation of the Iran-Israel confrontation. In 2021–2022, it acquired new forms and expanded to other parts of the Middle East and South Caucasus. In the first months of 2023, the armed conflict between Iran and Israel entered a critical phase and brought the Middle East to the brink of a new “Big War”. However, steps taken in the Spring of 2023 by leading regional and international powers gave a positive impulse to international developments in the Middle East that might reduce the degree of tension in the Iran-Israel relations.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-167-182
P. Sokolova
The article analyzes the dynamics of the new escalation in the Kosovo conflict, including the agenda for dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina and the agreements achieved in 2023. The impact of the European security crisis and Russia’s confrontation with the West on the Kosovo negotiation process is evaluated. It is concluded that escalation of the crisis in the early 2020s is linked to attempts undertaken by the Pristina authorities, with the support from the European Union and the United States, to finalize the statehood of the partially recognized republic and to establish Pristina’s sovereignty over the entire territory of the Kosovo region, while avoiding guaranteeing safety, civil, and political rights of the Serbian population residing there. Currently, the key issues of the negotiations are the ways to normalize relations between the Kosovo and Metohija Serbs and the authorities in Pristina, the return of the Serbs to the unified Kosovo police and administrative and political institutions, as well as the establishment of the Community of Serbian Municipalities. The agreements reached in February and March 2023 under the EU auspices outline a long-term perspective for conflict resolution, linking success in establishing inter-communal relations with the progress of Serbia’s and Kosovo’s European integration, but do not offer a clear path to achieving substantial agreements on the region’s status in the short term. The growing confrontation between Russia and the West (including the EU, the United States, and NATO) negatively affects the reconciliation process by intensifying confrontational rhetoric and enhancing the risk of escalating violence.
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