巴基斯坦的生育行为正在改变吗?1997年和2004年来自旁遮普省农村和西北边境省的证据。

Sharon J. Ghuman, Z. Sathar, C. Lloyd
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摘要

1997年至2004年期间在巴基斯坦旁遮普省农村和西北边境省(NWFP)进行的一项生育行为小组研究显示,从12个社区收集的数据显示,在6年期间,避孕药具的使用略有增加。大多数妇女表示希望在这两年中限制家庭规模,但尽管如此,三分之二的妇女在两次调查之间的六年里生了孩子。这表明,在既定的生育偏好和生育行为之间的分离和持续未满足的避孕需求。避孕药具使用的适度增加是在以村庄为基础的计划生育服务更加广泛地提供的同时发生的。虽然由于计划生育服务环境发生了一些变化,1997年至2004年的出生率与2004年的避孕药具使用之间的相关性较弱,但这两个变量与妇女受教育情况、受教育机会的变化和社区一级发展指标之间的相关性相对较强。因此,在政策方面,调查结果表明,对农村社区人力发展的投资与促进降低生育率的计划生育方案同样重要。
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Is fertility behaviour changing in Pakistan? Evidence from rural Punjab and the North-West Frontier Province 1997 and 2004.
In a panel study of fertility behaviour conducted between 1997 and 2004 in rural Punjab and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan data collected from 12 communities showed a modest increase in contraceptive use over a six-year period. A majority of women had expressed a desire to limit family size in both years but despite that two thirds had a birth over the six years between the two surveys. This suggests a disassociation between stated fertility preferences and fertility behaviour and a persistent unmet need for contraception. The modest rise in contraceptive use occurred at the same time as village-based family planning services became more widely available. Although there was a weak correlation between the occurrence of births from 1997 to 2004 and contraceptive use in 2004 as some changes in the family planning service environment had occurred there were comparatively stronger correlations of these two variables with women’s schooling changes in access to schooling and an indicator of community level development. In terms of policy the findings therefore indicate that investment in human development in rural communities is just as important as family planning programmes for facilitating a reduction in fertility.
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