货币需求的决定因素与稳定性分析(以土耳其为例)

Burcu Ozcan, Ayşe Arı
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引用次数: 3

摘要

本研究使用2005:12- 2012:10期间的月度数据来调查货币需求的稳定性。首先,通过约翰森协整检验检验M2货币总量、实际收入、利率和汇率之间是否存在长期均衡关系。在此基础上,运用CUSUM和CUSUMSQ检验对货币需求稳定性进行了分析。结果支持感兴趣的变量之间的长期关系。但否定了货币需求函数的稳定性。因此,土耳其中央银行采用基于M2货币总量的货币政策是不有效的。
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Para Talebinin Belirleyenleri ve İstikrarı Üzerine Bir Uygulama: Türkiye Örneği(An Analysis on Determinants and Stability of Money Demand: The Case of Turkey)
In this study, the stability of money demand is investigated using monthly data for the period 2005:12- 2012:10. First, the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among M2 monetary aggregate, real income, interest rate, and exchange rate is examined through Johansen cointegration test. After that, stability of money demand is analyzed using CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests. The results are in support of a long-run relationship among variables of interest. However, stability of money demand function is rejected. Thus, it is not efficient for Central Bank of Turkey to apply a monetary policy based on M2 monetary aggregate.
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来源期刊
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发文量
29
审稿时长
16 weeks
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