斯托雷平改革的区域效应

S. Nefedov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

斯托雷平改革的主要目标是提高农民农场的产量。把农民分配的土地统一到农场,为使用更先进的农业机械开辟了道路。历史学家对改革在多大程度上影响了第一次世界大战前夕的收益率动态争论不休。近年来,人们用数学方法来解决这个问题。然而,这些方法的应用需要仔细选择自变量和因变量。本文以各省整理土地占配垦土地总面积的比例为自变量,因变量为配垦土地粮食净产量。相关分析表明,总体而言,在俄罗斯欧洲地区的43个省,土地整理解释了30%的产量动态。但与此同时,也存在着很大的地区差异。在大俄罗斯的26个省,改革对产量没有显著影响;在许多省份,产量下降了。大俄罗斯改革的失败是由于这里存在着强大的农民社区,他们实行土地再分配,抵制农场的扩张。相反,在西部和南部的11个边缘省份,改革取得了成功。长期以来,拥有世袭房屋所有权的社区在这里占主导地位,这些社区普遍支持斯托雷平的计划。农场的扩展导致了产量的显著增加,其中50%的增长是由于农民分配的整合。
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Regional Effects of the Stolypin Reform
The main goal of P. A. Stolypin’s reform was to increase yields in peasant farms. The unification of peasant allotments into farms opened the way for the use of more advanced agricultural machinery. Historians argue about the extent to which the reforms affected the dynamics of yields on the eve of the First World War. In recent years, mathematical methods have been used to solve this problem. However, the application of these methods requires careful selection of both independent and dependent variables. In this paper, the share of consolidated lands in the total area of allotment lands in different provinces is used as an independent variable, and the dependent variable is the net grain yield on allotment lands. Correlation analysis shows that, in general, in 43 provinces of European Russia, land consolidation explained 30 % of the yield dynamics. But at the same time, there were very large regional differences. In 26 provinces of Great Russia, the reform did not have a significant impact on yields; in many provinces, yields decreased. The failure of the reform in Great Russia was due to the presence of strong peasant communities here, who practiced land redistribution and resisted the spread of farms. On the contrary, in 11 marginal western and southern provinces, the reform was marked by success. For a long time, communities with hereditary home ownership dominated here, and these communities generally supported Stolypin’s program. The spread of farms has led to a significant increase in yields here, and 50 % of this growth is due to the consolidation of peasant allotments.
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