金融发展如何影响贸易开放?来自巴基斯坦出口实绩的证据

M. A. Shamim, Syed Tehseen Jawaid, Farooq-e-Azam Cheema
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引用次数: 0

摘要

当前的研究考察了巴基斯坦金融发展与出口绩效之间的关系。这一目标是通过采用年度时间序列方法实现的,从1972年到2014年使用了统计数据。本研究采用主成分分析法编制金融发展指数。除此之外,还分析了不同金融发展方式的影响,例如市值,金融部门提供的国内信贷,私营部门的信贷,银行向私营部门的信贷以及货币供应量与GDP的比率。Johansen和ARDL协整描述了所有模型之间的长期联系。由于涉及到短期关系,误差修正模型已经投入使用。结果表明,金融发展指标(FND、CFS、CPS、CPB、MKC和MNS)在短期关系中对出口绩效有巨大的正向影响。FMOLS的结果证实了介绍结果的有效性。稳定性分析表明,所有模型都是稳定的。因果关系分析验证了各模型从出口到金融发展均存在单向因果关系。最后,对今后的研究提出了一些政策建议和方向。
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How Does Financial Development Impact Trade Openness? Evidence from Export Performance of Pakistan
: Current Study examines the relationship between financial developments with export performance in Pakistan. This objective was attained by employing yearly time series method and statistics have been used from 1972 to 2014. This study develops financial development index by using principal component analysis. In addition to this, the effect of different ways of financial development has been analyzed, for instance market capitalization, domestic credit furnished by the financial sectors, credit to the private sectors, credit to the private sectors by banks and the ratio of money supply to GDP. Johansen and ARDL cointegration portrays a long-term link in all models. Since short-term relationships are concerned, error correction model has been put into service. The results assert that financial development indicators (FND, CFS, CPS, CPB, MKC and MNS) have an immense positive effects on export performance when it comes to short-run relationships. The result of FMOLS confirms that the introductory results are powerful. Stability analysis indicates that all the models are stable. Causality analysis validates that unidirectional causality is present from export to financial development in all the models. In the last section, a few policy recommendations and directions for the upcoming research are given.
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