趋同理论在经济科学中的工具与乌克兰区域政策的实践

N. Shibaeva, I. Storozhenko, T. Baban
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引用次数: 0

摘要

现代经济方法来理解差异对乌克兰地区的经济发展的影响进行了分析。该研究是利用收敛理论的要素进行的。该研究基于2004年至2019年期间各地区的人均地区生产总值(GRP)和基尼系数。选择绝对收敛作为方法基础。采用Sigma和beta收敛方法确定区域间经济指标的收敛趋势。对2004年至2019年乌克兰地区发展的不平等动态进行了测试:在没有战略规划的情况下(2004 - 2005年)实施区域政策的年份和在实施区域政策的年份(2006-2019年)。从计算的变异系数和基尼系数值呈上升趋势可以看出,在分析期间没有观察到sigma收敛过程。从其他信息来源获得的数据(区域人类发展指数,乌克兰社区和领土发展部的数据)证实了所得结果的可靠性。基尼预测系数的计算直到2027年没有证实在预测期内乌克兰地区分化的减少。计算表明,区域平均需要14.6年才能覆盖到与稳定状态之间距离的一半,这相当于每年3.37%的收敛速度。研究发现,目前的区域政策没有考虑到研究中确定的趋势和制定的预测,这使得实现《到2027年区域发展国家战略》中设定的目标变得复杂。研究发现,研究结果不能得出区域政策有效性的结论。因此,需要进一步的研究,特别是确定和计算反映区域政策对区域不平衡影响的变量。还应考虑和检查是否存在“俱乐部”趋同现象,即按国内各区域分组。关键词:趋同,区域,区域政策,发展战略,预测,发展水平,经济增长,效率
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The tools of convergence theory in economic science and practice of regional policy in Ukraine
Modern economic approaches to understanding the impact of disparities on the economic development of the regions of Ukraine are analyzed. The study was conducted using elements of convergence theory. The study was based on gross regional product (GRP) per capita and the Gini coefcient by region for the period 2004 - 2019. Absolute convergence was chosen as the methodological basis. Sigma and beta convergence methods were used to determine the trend of convergence of economic indicators between regions. The dynamics of inequality of the Ukraine regions development in the period from 2004 to 2019 was tested: the years in which regional policy was conducted in the absence of strategic planning (2004 - 2005) and with its use (2006-2019). It is established that sigma convergence processes were not observed during the analyzed period, as evidenced by the upward trend in the values of the calculated coefcient of variation and Gini coefcient. The reliability of the obtained results is confrmed by data obtained from other sources of information (Regional Human Development Index, data from the Ministry of Development of Communities and Territories of Ukraine). The calculation of the Gini forecast coefcient until 2027 did not confrm the decrease in the differentiation of the regions of Ukraine in the forecast period. The calculations showed that the average region needs 14.6 years to cover half of the distance that separates it from the steady state, which corresponds to a convergence rate of 3.37% per year. It was found that the current regional policy identifed trends in the study and developed forecasts are not taken into account, which complicates the achievement of the goal set in the State Strategy for Regional Development until 2027. It was found that the results do not allow conclusions about the effectiveness of regional policy. Therefore, further research is needed, in particular the identifcation and calculation of variables that reflect the impact of regional policy on regional imbalances. It is also advisable to take into account and check the presence of "club" convergence, i.e. by groups of regions within the country. Key words: convergence, regions, regional policy, development strategy, forecasting, level of development, economic growth, efficiency.
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