{"title":"用Logistic模型和非药物措施控制<s:1>圣保罗市新冠肺炎疫情","authors":"Marcelo Domingos Marchesin","doi":"10.37473/dac/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093666","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":". In this paper we use the simple logistic mathematical model to represent the development of COVID-19 epidemic in S˜ao Paulo city under quarantine regime and we estimate the total amount of time it is necessary to decrease the number of seriously ill in order to reduce the demand for ICU hospital beds to tolerable levels. Clearly the same reasoning used here can be used for any other city in similar conditions.","PeriodicalId":73894,"journal":{"name":"Journal of pediatrics, perinatology and child health","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Taming Covid-19 Epidemic in São Paulo with a Logistic Model and Non-Pharmaceutical Measures\",\"authors\":\"Marcelo Domingos Marchesin\",\"doi\":\"10.37473/dac/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093666\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\". In this paper we use the simple logistic mathematical model to represent the development of COVID-19 epidemic in S˜ao Paulo city under quarantine regime and we estimate the total amount of time it is necessary to decrease the number of seriously ill in order to reduce the demand for ICU hospital beds to tolerable levels. Clearly the same reasoning used here can be used for any other city in similar conditions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":73894,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of pediatrics, perinatology and child health\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of pediatrics, perinatology and child health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.37473/dac/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093666\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of pediatrics, perinatology and child health","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.37473/dac/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093666","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Taming Covid-19 Epidemic in São Paulo with a Logistic Model and Non-Pharmaceutical Measures
. In this paper we use the simple logistic mathematical model to represent the development of COVID-19 epidemic in S˜ao Paulo city under quarantine regime and we estimate the total amount of time it is necessary to decrease the number of seriously ill in order to reduce the demand for ICU hospital beds to tolerable levels. Clearly the same reasoning used here can be used for any other city in similar conditions.
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