抵抗免疫?比较视角下的朝鲜国家社会关系与政治稳定

Q1 Arts and Humanities North Korean Review Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI:10.3172/NKR.10.1.55
B. Szalontai, C. Choi
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引用次数: 3

摘要

朝鲜政治制度在面临广泛挑战时的生存问题在学术界引起了激烈的争论。一个学派,所谓的“崩溃论者”,认为领导层不愿意引入激进的经济改革,预示着戏剧性的崩溃,因为政权对社会的控制越来越受到市场化进程的破坏相比之下,“弹性论者”则期望朝鲜政权能“蒙混过关”渡过经济危机。在他们看来,国家对社会异乎寻常的普遍控制可以抵消激进改革的缺失。由于改革实际上会破坏政权稳定,领导层有充分的理由避免采取此类措施。阿拉伯之春重新点燃了这一争论。虽然崩溃论者强调,该政权最终可能面临类似于2011-2012年震撼北非和中东的动乱,但恢复论者认为,阿拉伯之春的经验不能应用于朝鲜民主主义人民共和国(DPRK)截然不同的社会文化环境。尽管情况不同,但上述研究通常侧重于朝鲜国家的能力,而不是其运作的社会环境的特殊性。他们以精英为中心的观点既反映了关于普通公民政治态度的可靠信息的缺乏,也反映了反对该政权的大规模抗议活动的明显缺失。迄今为止,尽管存在严重的社会经济问题,朝鲜的政治制度从未遇到过来自下层的严重挑战。当然,部分学者分析了逃北者的观点,从社会阶层的角度评价了政权的持久性。他们提出的问题是,为什么在朝鲜没有发生大规模抗议活动,以及将来是否可能发生大规模抗议活动尽管如此,仍有必要进行进一步的调查,因为其中一些研究缺乏比较的视角,而另一些研究则仅仅集中在共产主义政权的极权制度上,或者将朝鲜与突尼斯、埃及和利比亚进行比较,这些国家的社会政治制度与朝鲜几乎没有共同之处。由于篇幅限制,本文不打算全面解释朝鲜政权的持久性。它也不包括不抵抗的一般原因,如政治压迫和与外部影响隔绝。相反,它试图研究某些特定的社会和地方团体是否能够对其他一党制国家表现出抵抗,可能在朝鲜发挥或已经发挥了类似的作用。所选群体是:(1)产业工人;(二)私营企业家;(3)宗教、民族和地区认同。值得注意的是,在其他许多国家,政权的总体持久性和他们对严厉镇压的偏好,并没有排除偶尔发生的抵抗。然而,在朝鲜,即使是局部的抗议活动也异常罕见。为了将朝鲜——一个结合了极权主义和新世袭主义特征的混合政权——与社会政治条件非常相似的国家进行比较,本分析的范围既包括各种共产主义政权,也包括叙利亚和伊拉克的复兴党国家。这些政权的选择基于以下相似之处:由群众组织支持的一党统治,强大的军队和强大的安全机构;使用致命武力镇压异议;一段时期的中央集权经济政策,随后是对私营企业的更大宽容;一种激进的“反帝国主义”世俗民族主义和“阿拉伯社会主义”的意识形态;广泛的政治裙带关系(包括叙利亚的王朝继承)。通过将朝鲜与不同类型的政权(改革前的共产主义制度,部分以市场为导向的共产主义制度,以及复兴党国家)进行比较,本文还试图调查朝鲜社会的动态是否在很大程度上是独特的,或者是否可以通过类比的方式至少部分解释。…
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Immunity to Resistance? State- Society Relations and Political Stability in North Korea in a Comparative Perspective
IntroductionThe survival of the North Korean political system in the face of a wide range of challenges has generated vigorous debates within the academic community. One school of thought, the so-called "collapsists," argues that the leadership's reluctance to introduce radical economic reforms foreshadows a dramatic collapse, as the regime's grip over society is increasingly undermined by the process of marketization.1 In contrast, the "resilientists" expect the regime to "muddle through" the economic crises. In their opinion, the state's unusually pervasive control over society can offset the absence of radical reforms. Since reforms would actually undermine regime stability, the leadership has good reason to refrain from such steps.2The Arab Spring has reignited this debate. While the collapsists emphasize that the regime might eventually face popular unrest akin to the upheavals that rocked North Africa and the Middle East in 2011-2012, the resilientists argue that the experiences of the Arab Spring cannot be applied to the vastly different socio-cultural environment in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).Despite the different scenarios, the aforementioned studies were commonly focused on the capabilities of the North Korean state, rather than the peculiarities of the social environment in which it operated. Their elite-centered perspective reflected both the scarcity of reliable information about the political attitudes of ordinary citizens and the conspicuous absence of mass protests against the regime. To date, the North Korean political system has never encountered any serious challenge from below, serious socio-economic problems notwithstanding.To be sure, certain scholars, having analyzed the views of North Korean refugees, assessed the regime's durability from the perspective of social stratification. They raised the question of why mass protests have not occurred in the DPRK, and whether they might occur in the future.3 Still, there is a need for further investigation, for some of these studies have lacked a comparative perspective, while others have concentrated solely on the totalitarian institutions of Communist regimes, or compared North Korea with Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, whose socio-political systems had little in common with the DPRK.Due to space limitations, this article does not aspire to provide a full explanation for the durability of the North Korean regime. Nor does it cover such general causes of non-resistance as political repression and isolation from external influences. Instead, it seeks to examine whether certain specific social and subnational groups that proved able to show resistance against other one-party states might play, or have played, a similar role in the DPRK. The selected groups are: (1) industrial workers; (2) private entrepreneurs; and (3) religious, ethnic, and regional identities. Notably, in various other countries the regimes' general durability, and their penchant for harsh repression, did not preclude the occasional occurrence of resistance. However, in the DPRK, even localized protests have been unusually rare.To compare North Korea-a hybrid regime combining totalitarian and neopatrimonial features-with countries whose socio-political conditions were sufficiently similar, the scope of this analysis includes both a variety of Communist regimes and the Baathist party-states in Syria and Iraq. These regimes were selected on the basis of the following similarities: one-party rule supported by mass organizations, a strong army, and a formidable security apparatus; use of lethal force to suppress dissent; a period of statist economic policies, followed by greater tolerance toward private entrepreneurship; an ideology of militantly "anti-imperialist" secular nationalism and "Arab socialism"; and extensive political nepotism (including dynastic succession in Syria). By comparing the DPRK with various types of regimes (prereform Communist systems, partially market-oriented Communist systems, and Baathist party-states), the article also seeks to investigate whether the dynamics of North Korean society is largely unique, or if it can be at least partially explained by means of analogy. …
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North Korean Review
North Korean Review Arts and Humanities-History
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Staying the course: Denuclearization and path dependence in the US's North Korea policy Editor-in-Chief's Comments Managing Editor's Comments Socio-Economic Change in the DPRK and Korean Security Dilemmas: The Implications for International Policy North Korea and Northeast Asian Regional Security
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