委内瑞拉:生存还是毁灭

IF 6.3 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Foreign Affairs Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.46493/2663-2675-2021-1-2-1
Volodymyr Krasilchuk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这篇文章讨论了委内瑞拉当前政治和体制危机的最关键因素。对1989年至2020年的事件进行了简短的历史偏转,其中包括大多数人口中根深蒂固的左翼政治观点和情感。这种情况为加强执政的统一社会党的作用和现任国家元首马杜罗在该国国内政治中的作用提供了坚实的平台。2019年1月5日,反对派VP(“人民意志”)代表Juan Guaidó当选为国民议会主席后,上述石油资源丰富的南美国家的政治和制度危机急剧扩大。他挑战现任总统,于2019年1月23日宣布自己为代理国家元首。在这种情况下,特别揭示了当前委内瑞拉危机的主要社会和经济后果,例如国内生产总值收缩,恶性通货膨胀,生活在极端经济贫困中的人口增加,由于人道主义危机的明显迹象而被迫离开该国的委内瑞拉人增加。委内瑞拉社会在破坏性过程中愈演愈烈,政党领袖层面的政治辩论愈演愈烈,公共领域缺乏关于国家未来的透明讨论,而这些都是实现公民民主选择权的必要条件,这似乎是Guaidó策略失败的后果。它特别建立在马杜罗篡夺权力的愿望之上,但没有实现。主要国际参与者(美国、欧盟、美洲国家组织、“利马集团”、国际联络小组)的立场概述了对委内瑞拉国内局势的评估,以及解决政治危机和恢复该国民主的建议,特别是通过对委内瑞拉官员和法人实体实施制裁,以及建立马杜罗与反对派之间的建设性对话。乌克兰在“委内瑞拉问题”上的主要官方立场也已通知。简而言之,得出的结论是,对某类乌克兰选民和对大多数委内瑞拉人来说,尽管存在明显的差异,公共行政模式的问题仍然是口头上的、权威的,是民主化改善的结果,或专制的结果。
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Venezuela: to be or not to be
The article deals with the most crucial components of the current political and institutional crisis in Venezuela. A brief historical deflection into the events of 1989-2020 was made, which indicate, among other things, deep-seated left-wing political views and feelings amidst the majority of the population. This situation serves as a solid platform for strengthening the role of the ruling PSUV party and the present head of State, N. Maduro, in the country’s domestic politics. The political and institutional crisis in the above-mentioned oil-rich South American country has expanded sharply, after being elected Juan Guaidó, a representative of the opposition party VP («People’s Will») as a Chairman of the National Assembly on January 5, 2019. He challenged the prevailing President, declaring himself as the Acting head of State just on January 23, 2019. In this context, the key social and economic aftermaths of the crisis in present-day Venezuela are revealed, in particular, such as the GDP contraction, hyperinflation, growth of the population living in extreme economic poverty, an increase of Venezuelans forced to leave the country due to, above all, obvious signs of a humanitarian crisis. Deepening of the Venezuelan society in destructive processes, escalating of the political debates at the level of parties’ leaders, a lack of the transparent discussion in the public arena concerning the country’s future, to be a necessary condition for realizing the citizen’s rights to democratic choice, appear as consequences of the failure of Guaidó’s strategy. It was built in particular on the desired, but not achieved cessation the usurpation of power by Maduro. The postures of the main international players (USA, EU, OAS, «Lima Group», International Contact Group) are outlined with regard to the assessments of the domestic situation in Venezuela and suggestions for resolving the political crisis and restoring democracy in this country, in particular via introducing sanctions against Venezuelan officials and legal entities, as well as establishing a constructive dialogue between Maduro and the opposition. The main items of Ukraine’s official position on the «Venezuelan issue» had also been notified. In a nutshell, a conclusion is made that for a certain category of Ukrainian voters and for the majority of Venezuelans, despite the obvious differences, the issue of the public administration model remains rhetorical, authoritative, as an outcome of the improvement of democratization, or authoritarian one.
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来源期刊
Foreign Affairs
Foreign Affairs INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
2
期刊介绍: Founded in 1922, Foreign Affairs is a prominent American magazine that focuses on international relations and U.S. foreign policy. It is published by the Council on Foreign Relations, an esteemed nonpartisan think tank and membership organization dedicated to analyzing U.S. foreign policy and global affairs. While the print magazine is released every two months, the website offers daily articles and publishes anthologies every other month.
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