不确定性对系统风险决策的影响

Zoran Kekovic
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在大多数现代方法论中,风险被定义为“不确定性对目标的影响”。系统性风险超过了任何系统或系统的一部分有效控制它们的能力,这是现代社会固有的,它的复杂性和相互依赖性。它们标志着从“风险社会”向“危机社会”的转变,重点从风险评估转向决策,并对在不确定条件下做出的决策负责。本文讨论了不确定性存在不同维度的假设,以及它们对实现决策目标的影响,这些目标与产生不确定性的障碍的持续时间、幅度和模式有关。目的是在现代危机和不确定性的背景下定义和分类不同的管理方法,以定义基于系统性风险意识的决策中的不确定性的影响。研究结果应使决策者和政策制定者能够形成一种系统性风险文化,包括他们对系统性风险的预测、准备和应对。
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Effects of uncertainty in decision-making about system risks
In most modern methodological approaches, risk is defined as 'effect of uncertainty on objectives'. Systemic risks outweigh the ability of any system or part of a system to control them effectively, which is inherent to modern society, its complexity and interdependence. They mark the transition from a 'risk society' to a 'crisis society', with a fundamental shift in the focus from risk assessment to decision-making and taking responsibility for decisions made in conditions of uncertainty. The paper discusses the hypothesis that there are different dimensions of uncertainty and their effects on achieving decision - making goals related to the duration, amplitude and patterns of disorders that generate uncertainty. The aim is to define and classify different management approaches in the context of modern crises and uncertainty to define the effects of uncertainty in decision-making based on systemic risks awareness. The results should enable decision-makers and policy makers to develop a culture of systemic risks that includes their anticipation, readiness and response to them.
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