The association between social care expenditure and multiple-long term conditions: A population-based area-level analysis.

Background: Multiple long-term health conditions (MLTCs) are common and increasing among older people, yet there is limited understanding of their prevalence and association with social care expenditure.

Aim: To estimate the prevalence of MTLCs and association with English social care expenditure.

Methods: Our study population included those aged ≥ 65 who died in England in the year 2018 with any of the following long-term conditions recorded on their death certificate: diabetes; cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) including hypertension; dementia; stroke; respiratory; and chronic kidney diseases (CKDs). Prevalence was based on the proportion of death reported for older people with MTLCs (≥ 2) in each of the 152 English Local Authorities (LAs). Ordinary least square regression (OLS) was used to assess the relationship between prevalence of MTLCs and adult social care expenditure, adjusting for LA characteristics.

Results: Of the 409551 deaths reported, 19.9% (n = 81395) had ≥ 2 MTLCs, of which the combination of CVDs-diabetes was the most prevalent. Hospitals were the leading place of death for those with MTLCs. Results from the OLS regression model showed that an increased prevalence of MLTCs is associated with higher LA social care expenditure. A percentage point increase in prevalence of MLTCs is associated with an increase of about £8.13 in per capita LA social care expenditure.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the increased prevalence of MTLCs is associated with increased LA social care expenditure. It is important for future studies to further explore the mechanisms or link between LA social care expenditure and the prevalence of MTLCs.