Predicting the functional outcome of intensive inpatient rehabilitation after stroke: results from the RIPS Study.

Background: The complexity of stroke sequelae, the heterogeneity of outcome measures and rehabilitation pathways, and the lack of extensively validated prediction models represent a challenge in predicting stroke rehabilitation outcomes.

Aim: To prospectively investigate a multidimensional set of variables collected at admission to inpatient post-stroke rehabilitation as potential predictors of the functional level at discharge.

Design: Multicentric prospective observational study.

Setting: Patients were enrolled in four Intensive Rehabilitation Units (IRUs).

Population: Patients were consecutively recruited in the period December 2019-December 2020 with the following inclusion criteria: aged 18+, with ischemic/haemorrhagic stroke, and undergoing inpatient rehabilitation within 30 days from stroke.

Methods: This is a multicentric prospective observational study. The rehabilitation pathway was reproducible and evidence-based. The functional outcome was disability in activities of daily living, measured by the modified Barthel Index (mBI) at discharge. Potential multidimensional predictors, assessed at admission, included demographics, event description, clinical assessment, functional and cognitive profile, and psycho-social domains. The variables statistically associated with the outcome in the univariate analysis were fed into a multivariable model using multiple linear regression.

Results: A total of 220 patients were included (median [IQR] age: 80 [15], 112 women, 175 ischemic). Median mBI was 26 (43) at admission and 62.5 (52) at discharge. In the multivariable analysis younger age, along with better functioning, fewer comorbidities, higher cognitive abilities, reduced stroke severity, and higher motor functions at admission, remained independently associated with higher discharge mBI. The final model allowed a reliable prediction of discharge functional outcome (adjusted R²=77.2%).

Conclusions: The model presented in this study, based on easily collectable, reliable admission variables, could help clinicians and researchers to predict the discharge scores of the global functional outcome for persons enrolled in an evidence-based inpatient stroke rehabilitation program.

Clinical rehabilitation impact: A reliable outcome prediction derived from standardized assessment measures and validated treatment protocols could guide clinicians in the management of patients in the subacute phase of stroke and help improve the planning of the rehabilitation individualized project.