Expected wait times for access to a disease-modifying Alzheimer's treatment in England: A modelling study.

Objectives: We previously analysed the preparedness to deliver a disease-modifying Alzheimer's treatment in the United Kingdom and predicted substantial wait times. This study updates the prediction for the National Health Service (NHS) in England, using an improved model and newer data.

Methods: We reviewed published data on capacity for diagnosis of cognitive impairment combined with expert input and constructed a model for wait times to access from 2023 to 2043. The model tracks patients from initial evaluation in primary care, cognitive testing by a dementia specialist, confirmatory biomarker testing with positron emission tomography (PET) scans or examination of cerebrospinal fluid and infusion delivery. Capacity for specialist visits and PET scans are assumed to be capacity constrained, and cerebrospinal fluid testing and infusion delivery to be scalable.

Results: Capacity constraints were projected to result in substantial wait times: patients referred to specialists based on a brief cognitive test, which is the current standard of care, would expect an overall initial wait times of 56 months in 2023, increasing to 129 months in 2029 and then falling slowly to around 100 months. Use of a blood test for the confirmation of Alzheimer's pathology as an additional triage step, would reduce wait times to around 17 to 25 months.

Discussion: The NHS England lacks capacity to provide timely access to a disease-modifying treatment, which is estimated to result in significant wait times and potentially avoidable disease progression. Better diagnostic tools at initial evaluation may reduce delays.