Vector species richness predicts local mortality rates from Chagas disease

Vector species richness may drive the prevalence of vector-borne diseases by influencing pathogen transmission rates. The dilution effect hypothesis predicts that higher biodiversity reduces disease prevalence, but with inconclusive evidence. In contrast, the amplification effect hypothesis suggests that higher vector diversity may result in greater disease transmission by increasing and diversifying the transmission pathways. The relationship between vector diversity and pathogen transmission remains unclear and requires further study. Chagas disease is a vector-borne disease most prevalent in Brazil and transmitted by multiple species of insect vectors of the subfamily Triatominae, yet the drivers of spatial variation in its impact on human populations remain unresolved. We tested whether triatomine species richness, latitude, bioclimatic variables, human host population density, and socioeconomic variables predict Chagas disease mortality rates across over 5000 spatial grid cells covering all of Brazil. Results show that species richness of triatomine vectors is a good predictor of mortality rates caused by Chagas disease, which supports the amplification effect hypothesis. Vector richness and the impact of Chagas disease may also be driven by latitudinal components of climate and human socioeconomic factors. We provide evidence that vector diversity is a strong predictor of disease prevalence and give support to the amplification effect hypothesis.