澳大利亚东部强烈的东海岸低气压和相关的降雨

IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Pub Date : 2021-03-19 DOI:10.1071/ES20013
A. Pepler, A. Dowdy
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引用次数: 5

摘要

东海岸低压(ecl)是发生在澳大利亚东海岸附近的低压系统。但并非所有低气压都会造成同样程度的影响,该地区一半以上的大范围降雨都是由一小部分低气压造成的。在这项研究中,我们结合了地面和500hPa水平的气旋分析,以评估导致东海岸广泛强降雨的气旋位置。我们发现,当澳大利亚东南部内陆地区500hPa的低气压与东海岸上方更直接的地面低气压重合时,东海岸广泛分布的总降雨量在100mm以上。这样的事件每年大约发生15天,但占澳大利亚东海岸大范围强降雨天数的50%以上。我们还发现,当地表和上层气旋都很强时,当使用压力/高度的最大拉普拉斯量测量时,极端降雨最有可能发生。500hPa地面气旋的季节频率与全球气候驱动因子和局地环流变率指数之间的相关性较弱,且往往呈相反关系(尽管量级较弱)。1979-2019年强热带气旋频次变化趋势较弱,但强热带气旋日数略有下降,在东南部分地区具有统计学意义。了解哪些ECL与强降雨有关,将有助于我们更好地确定未来气候变化将如何影响ECL的影响。
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Intense east coast lows and associated rainfall in eastern Australia
East coast lows (ECLs) are low pressure systems that occur near the east coast of Australia. But not all lows cause the same level of impact, and a small proportion of ECLs are responsible for more than half of all days with widespread rainfall above 50mm in this region. In this study, we combine analyses of cyclones at both the surface and 500hPa levels to assess the locations of cyclones responsible for widespread heavy rainfall on the east coast. We found that the majority of days with widespread totals above 100mm on the east coast occur when a low at 500hPa over inland southeast Australia coincides with a surface low located more directly over the east coast. Such events occur on about 15 days per year but are responsible for more than 50% of days with widespread heavy rainfall on the eastern seaboard of Australia. We also found that extreme rainfall was most likely when both the surface and upper cyclones were very strong, when measured using the maximum Laplacian of pressure/height. The seasonal frequency of cyclones at the surface and 500hPa were found to be only weakly correlated with each other and often had opposing relationships (albeit weak in magnitude) with both global climate drivers and indices of local circulation variability. Trends in cyclone frequency were weak over the period 1979–2019, but there was a small decline in the frequency of deep cyclone days, which was statistically significant in some parts of the southeast. Understanding which ECLs are associated with heavy rainfall will help us to better identify how future climate change will influence ECL impacts.
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来源期刊
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Oceanography
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (JSHESS) publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis on the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the Journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales. general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans, climate change and variability , climate impacts, climate modelling , past change in the climate system including palaeoclimate variability, atmospheric dynamics, synoptic meteorology, mesoscale meteorology and severe weather, tropical meteorology, observation systems, remote sensing of atmospheric, oceanic and land surface processes, weather, climate and ocean prediction, atmospheric and oceanic composition and chemistry, physical oceanography, air‐sea interactions, coastal zone processes, hydrology, cryosphere‐atmosphere interactions, land surface‐atmosphere interactions, space weather, including impacts and mitigation on technology, ionospheric, magnetospheric, auroral and space physics, data assimilation applied to the above subject areas . Authors are encouraged to contact the Editor for specific advice on whether the subject matter of a proposed submission is appropriate for the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science.
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