{"title":"澳大利亚东部强烈的东海岸低气压和相关的降雨","authors":"A. Pepler, A. Dowdy","doi":"10.1071/ES20013","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\nEast coast lows (ECLs) are low pressure systems that occur near the east coast of Australia. But not all lows cause the same level of impact, and a small proportion of ECLs are responsible for more than half of all days with widespread rainfall above 50mm in this region. In this study, we combine analyses of cyclones at both the surface and 500hPa levels to assess the locations of cyclones responsible for widespread heavy rainfall on the east coast. We found that the majority of days with widespread totals above 100mm on the east coast occur when a low at 500hPa over inland southeast Australia coincides with a surface low located more directly over the east coast. Such events occur on about 15 days per year but are responsible for more than 50% of days with widespread heavy rainfall on the eastern seaboard of Australia. We also found that extreme rainfall was most likely when both the surface and upper cyclones were very strong, when measured using the maximum Laplacian of pressure/height. The seasonal frequency of cyclones at the surface and 500hPa were found to be only weakly correlated with each other and often had opposing relationships (albeit weak in magnitude) with both global climate drivers and indices of local circulation variability. Trends in cyclone frequency were weak over the period 1979–2019, but there was a small decline in the frequency of deep cyclone days, which was statistically significant in some parts of the southeast. Understanding which ECLs are associated with heavy rainfall will help us to better identify how future climate change will influence ECL impacts.\n","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"19 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2021-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Intense east coast lows and associated rainfall in eastern Australia\",\"authors\":\"A. Pepler, A. Dowdy\",\"doi\":\"10.1071/ES20013\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\nEast coast lows (ECLs) are low pressure systems that occur near the east coast of Australia. But not all lows cause the same level of impact, and a small proportion of ECLs are responsible for more than half of all days with widespread rainfall above 50mm in this region. In this study, we combine analyses of cyclones at both the surface and 500hPa levels to assess the locations of cyclones responsible for widespread heavy rainfall on the east coast. We found that the majority of days with widespread totals above 100mm on the east coast occur when a low at 500hPa over inland southeast Australia coincides with a surface low located more directly over the east coast. Such events occur on about 15 days per year but are responsible for more than 50% of days with widespread heavy rainfall on the eastern seaboard of Australia. We also found that extreme rainfall was most likely when both the surface and upper cyclones were very strong, when measured using the maximum Laplacian of pressure/height. The seasonal frequency of cyclones at the surface and 500hPa were found to be only weakly correlated with each other and often had opposing relationships (albeit weak in magnitude) with both global climate drivers and indices of local circulation variability. Trends in cyclone frequency were weak over the period 1979–2019, but there was a small decline in the frequency of deep cyclone days, which was statistically significant in some parts of the southeast. Understanding which ECLs are associated with heavy rainfall will help us to better identify how future climate change will influence ECL impacts.\\n\",\"PeriodicalId\":55419,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science\",\"volume\":\"19 5\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-03-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"5\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1071/ES20013\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"Earth and Planetary Sciences\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1071/ES20013","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
Intense east coast lows and associated rainfall in eastern Australia
East coast lows (ECLs) are low pressure systems that occur near the east coast of Australia. But not all lows cause the same level of impact, and a small proportion of ECLs are responsible for more than half of all days with widespread rainfall above 50mm in this region. In this study, we combine analyses of cyclones at both the surface and 500hPa levels to assess the locations of cyclones responsible for widespread heavy rainfall on the east coast. We found that the majority of days with widespread totals above 100mm on the east coast occur when a low at 500hPa over inland southeast Australia coincides with a surface low located more directly over the east coast. Such events occur on about 15 days per year but are responsible for more than 50% of days with widespread heavy rainfall on the eastern seaboard of Australia. We also found that extreme rainfall was most likely when both the surface and upper cyclones were very strong, when measured using the maximum Laplacian of pressure/height. The seasonal frequency of cyclones at the surface and 500hPa were found to be only weakly correlated with each other and often had opposing relationships (albeit weak in magnitude) with both global climate drivers and indices of local circulation variability. Trends in cyclone frequency were weak over the period 1979–2019, but there was a small decline in the frequency of deep cyclone days, which was statistically significant in some parts of the southeast. Understanding which ECLs are associated with heavy rainfall will help us to better identify how future climate change will influence ECL impacts.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science (JSHESS) publishes broad areas of research with a distinct emphasis on the Southern Hemisphere. The scope of the Journal encompasses the study of the mean state, variability and change of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface, including the cryosphere, from hemispheric to regional scales.
general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans,
climate change and variability ,
climate impacts,
climate modelling ,
past change in the climate system including palaeoclimate variability,
atmospheric dynamics,
synoptic meteorology,
mesoscale meteorology and severe weather,
tropical meteorology,
observation systems,
remote sensing of atmospheric, oceanic and land surface processes,
weather, climate and ocean prediction,
atmospheric and oceanic composition and chemistry,
physical oceanography,
air‐sea interactions,
coastal zone processes,
hydrology,
cryosphere‐atmosphere interactions,
land surface‐atmosphere interactions,
space weather, including impacts and mitigation on technology,
ionospheric, magnetospheric, auroral and space physics,
data assimilation applied to the above subject areas .
Authors are encouraged to contact the Editor for specific advice on whether the subject matter of a proposed submission is appropriate for the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science.