外商直接投资与影子经济:单向效应还是多重因果关系?

IF 1.4 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Millennium - Journal of International Studies Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI:10.14254/2071-8330.2022/15-4/12
I. Tiutiunyk, Wojciech Cieslinski, A. Zolkover, Laszlo Vasa
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本文考察了影子经济规模与投资市场发展指标之间的关系。外国直接投资净流入、非金融资产净投资额、证券投资量和外国直接投资净流出被用作表征投资市场发展的参数。采用回归方程夏皮罗-威尔克检验分析各指标之间的相关性。研究结果表明,外国直接投资流入和流出的增加导致乌克兰、波兰、斯洛文尼亚、罗马尼亚、克罗地亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚等国影子经济规模的增长不存在时滞,而斯洛伐克和匈牙利则存在1年的时滞。对影子经济规模影响最大的是外国直接投资的流入和流出量,而证券投资的数量影响不太显著。因此,得出的结论是,外国直接投资流入和流出的过程需要由专门的国家执行机构加强控制,因为它们可能对该国宏观经济稳定产生破坏稳定的影响。
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Foreign direct investment and shadow economy: One-way effect or multiple-way causality?
The article examines the relationship between the size of the shadow economy and indicators of the investment market development. Net inflow of foreign direct investments, volume of net investments in non-financial assets, volumes of portfolio investments, and net outflow of foreign direct investment were used as parameters characterizing the development of the investment market. The dependence between the indicators was analyzed using the regression equation, Shapiro-Wilk test. Research results demonstrate that the increase in the inflow and outflow of foreign direct investments leads to an increase in the size of the shadow economy without a time lag in Ukraine, Poland, Slovenia, Romania, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and with a time lag of 1 year in Slovakia and Hungary. The largest impact on the size of the shadow economy is made by the volume of inflow and outflow of direct foreign investments, while the volume of portfolio investments has a less significant effect. Consequently, it was concluded that the processes of inflow and outflow of direct foreign investments require enhanced control by specialized state executive bodies given the scale of their potential destabilizing impact on the macroeconomic stability of the country.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
8.00%
发文量
17
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