Comprehensive methodology for calculating possible sanitary losses of the population and the need for assets and resources of the civilian health care in armed conflicts

Relevance. In the zone of armed conflict (in the risk zone), people receive various injuries. The nature and severity of injuries depend on the combined impact of many damaging factors and the conditions of the medical situation. The number of medical units and institutions for providing medical assistance to those in need can be determined based on accurate forecast of the medical situation in the zone of armed conflict.Intention: To present the methodology for calculating the sanitary losses of the population in the course of an armed conflict and to determine resources of civilian health care in the territories of military operations.Methodology. Generalization and systematization of empirical, statistical and theoretical data are used, as well as traditional analysis of documents and literature on the topic of the study. The methodology is based on the following principles: multifactorial occurrence of sanitary losses; repeatability, multiple effects of damaging factors; the principle of uneven and nonsimultaneous occurrence of sanitary losses in the zone of armed conflict.Results and Discussion. Existing methods of forecasting and assessing the medical situation in the zone of armed conflict have been analyzed. A new algorithm for complex analysis and assessment of the medical situation has been developed.Conclusion. The data obtained can serve an important basis for organizing medical support for the population in the zone of armed conflict, protecting the life and health of those affected.