Relating the Empirical Foundations of Attack Generation and Vulnerability Discovery

Automatically generating exploits for attacks receives much attention in security testing and auditing. However, little is known about the continuous effect of automatic attack generation and detection. In this paper, we develop an analytic model to understand the cost-benefit tradeoffs in light of the process of vulnerability discovery. We develop a three-phased model, suggesting that the cumulative malware detection has a productive period before the rate of gain flattens. As the detection mechanisms co-evolve, the gain will likely increase. We evaluate our analytic model by using an anti-virus tool to detect the thousands of Trojans automatically created. The anti-virus scanning results over five months show the validity of the model and point out future research directions.