积云参数化方案对WRF模式模拟孟加拉湾热带气旋“Roanu”的影响

-. Saifullah, Md. Idris Ali, A. Imran
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对2016年5月在孟加拉湾形成的热带气旋Roanu进行了天气研究与预报(WRF)模式积云参数化(CP)方案的敏感性研究。采用Kain-Fritsch (KF)、Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ)、Grell - freit as Ensemble (GFE)、Grell - 3D Ensemble (G3E)和Grell - devenyi (GD) Ensemble方案对模型进行72h的运行,研究其轨迹、强度的变化。BMJ方案的登陆位置误差最小,除GD方案外,其他方案的延迟时间仅为1.5 ~ 5小时。BMJ、GFE、GD方案的最小海平面气压和最大风速的均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)较小。BMJ和G3E方案的降水均方根误差最小。除GD方案外,其他方案均具有较好的效果。达卡大学学报(自然科学版),68(1):87- 94,2020 (1)
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The Impact of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes on the Simulation of Tropical Cyclone “Roanu” Over the Bay of Bengal Using WRF Model
A sensitivity study has been made on cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the simulation of tropical cyclone Roanu which formed over Bay of Bengal during May 2016. The model was run for 72 hours with different CP schemes such as Kain–Fritsch (KF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell–Freit as Ensemble (GFE), Grell 3D Ensemble (G3E) and Grell–Devenyi (GD) Ensemble schemes to study the variation in track, intensity. The landfall position error is minimum for BMJ scheme but the time delayed only 1.5-5 hours for all schemes except GD scheme. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed is smaller for BMJ, GFE, GD schemes. The RMSE-MAE of rainfall is minimum for BMJ and G3E schemes. Except GD scheme all the other schemes give the better result. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 68(1): 87-94, 2020 (January)
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