基于条件-尾部期望优化的份额分保与止损分保最优组合

Y. Orvin, S. Nurrohmah, I. Fithriani
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摘要

为了保持财务稳定和有效地管理风险,保险公司将部分损失再保给再保险公司。最常用的两种再保险合同是份额和止损合同。在配额分担中,损失按固定比例分摊,再保险保费按比例值分摊;在止损中,损失按保留值分摊。为了弥补这两种再保险的不足,本研究将份额分保和止损分保相结合。随后,为了让保险公司获得良好的赔付,需要找到最优比例和保额值。这样做的一种方法是使用风险度量优化。风险计量值越小,保险人承担的损失就越小。本文使用的风险度量是条件尾期望(CTE),其中在其计算中涉及风险价值(VaR)。利用期望值原理进行计算,将再保险保费作为约束条件,对每一种再保险组合进行CTE优化,即先止损后配额分担和先止损后配额分担。通过优化CTE,发现每种再保险组合产生相同的最小CTE,因此两种再保险组合对保险人来说都是最优的。通过使用不同的分布,可以看到最小的CTE依赖于分布的尾部行为。此外,在确定最小值时,使用CTE进行优化所使用的条件与VaR不同。
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Optimal reinsurance combination of quota-share and stop-loss reinsurance based on conditional-tail-expectation (CTE) optimization
To maintain financial stability and to effectively manage risk, an insurer will partially reinsure the loss to a reinsurance company. Two of the most often used reinsurance contracts are quota-share and stop-loss. In quota-share, the loss will be split based on a fixed proportion and the reinsurance premium depends on the value of the proportion, while in stop-loss the loss will be split depending on the retention value. In the hope that these two types of reinsurance can cover each other weaknesses, this study combines both quota-share and stop-loss reinsurance. Subsequently, to get a good coverage for the insurer, it is necessary to find the optimal proportion and retention value. One way to do so is using risk measure optimization. The smaller the value of the risk measure, the smaller the loss borne by the insurer. The risk measure used in this paper is Conditional-Tail-Expectation (CTE), where it involves Value-at-Risk (VaR) in its calculation. Calculated using the expected value principle, the reinsurance premium is used as a constraint in the CTE optimization for each of the reinsurance combinations, which are stop-loss after quota-share and quota-share after stop-loss. By optimizing CTE, it is found that each combination produces the same minimal CTE, so both reinsurance combinations are optimal for use by the insurer. By using different distributions, it is seen that the minimal CTE depends on the distribution’s tail behavior. Furthermore, in determining the minimal value, the conditions that are used in optimization using CTE are different from VaR.
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