Capabilities of Commercial Satellite Earth Observation Systems and Applications for Nuclear Verification and Monitoring

Abstract A growing number of commercial Earth observation satellite systems provide capabilities with significant application in nuclear verification, monitoring, and proliferation analysis. This article provides some relevant examples and a case study describing the importance of spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution on detectability of ground targets and monitoring of activity. The article also provides an overview of 300 operational (as of September 2021) optical and radar systems with a ground resolution of 5 m or better, whose imagery is available to the public. By merging all satellites into one super-constellation, a simulation was performed to describe its potential coverage. The analysis suggests that with current commercial capabilities it would be possible to image newly discovered alleged ICBM fields in China every few hours with a ground resolution sufficient to detect new construction and missile uploading.