Science & Global Security最新文献

{"title":"Utilizing a Virtual Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Digital Twin to Aid in Diversion Pathway Analysis for International Safeguards Applications","authors":"Ryan Stewart, Ashley Shields, Shaw Wen, Frederick Gleicher, Samuel Bays, Mark Schanfein, Jeren Browning, Katherine Jesse, Christopher Ritter","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2299560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2299560","url":null,"abstract":"Digital twin technology can improve the effectiveness of international safeguards inspectors by providing a tool that can perform an accurate acquisition pathway analysis, identify pathway indicato...","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139679865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editors’ Note","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2298580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2298580","url":null,"abstract":"Published in Science & Global Security: The Technical Basis for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Initiatives (Ahead of Print, 2023)","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139068469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plutonium Production under Uranium Constraint","authors":"Erik Branger, Peter Andersson, Vitaly Fedchenko, Sophie Grape, Cecilia Gustavsson, Robert Kelley, Débora Trombetta","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2293531","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2293531","url":null,"abstract":"Production rates of fissile materials are often used to independently assess the number of nuclear warheads a state may possess. One key constraint of a plutonium-based nuclear weapons program is t...","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139017913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hypersonic Weapons: Vulnerability to Missile Defenses and Comparison to MaRVs","authors":"David Wright, Cameron L. Tracy","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2270292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2270292","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractAssessing the utility of hypersonic boost glide vehicles (BGVs) requires comparing their capabilities to alternative systems that could carry out the same missions, particularly given the technical difficulties and additional costs of developing BGVs compared to more established technologies. This paper discusses the primary motivations given for BGVs—most notably countering missile defenses—and summarizes current hypersonic development programs. It finds that evading the most capable current endo-atmospheric defenses requires that BGVs maintain speeds significantly higher than Mach 5 throughout their glide phase, which has implications for their mass and range. The paper then compares BGVs to maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) carried on ballistic missiles flown on depressed trajectories and shows that MaRVs can offer significant advantages over BGVs in a wide range of cases. Finally, the paper shows that BGV maneuvering during its glide phase can result in substantial costs in range and glide speed. AcknowledgementsThe authors would like to thank Steve Fetter and Paul Zarchan for useful comments on parts of this work.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 The speed of sound in the atmosphere varies by about 10% over the range of altitudes of interest for BGVs (10–50 km). We assume a speed of 300 m/s, which is roughly consistent with a standard engineering approximation that uses 1000 ft/s as sound speed at these altitudes. See “1976 Standard Atmosphere Calculator,” DigitalDutch, https://www.digitaldutch.com/atmoscalc/table.htm.2 Richard H. Speier, George Nacouzi, Carrie A. Lee, and Richard M. Moore, Hypersonic Missile Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of a New Class of Weapons (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017), 53–93, https://rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2137.html.3 MaRVs were developed and tested during the Cold War and in the 2000s. See Matthew Bunn, “Technology of Ballistic Missile Reentry Vehicles,” in Review of U.S. Military Research and Development: 1984, eds. Kosta Tsipis and Penny Janeway (Mclean, VA: Pergamon, 1984), 87–107, https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/bunn_tech_of_ballastic_missle_reentry_vehicles.pdf. See also National Research Council, U.S. Conventional Prompt Global Strike: Issues for 2008 and Beyond, Committee on Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capability (2008), https://doi.org/10.17226/12061, and Amy Woolf, Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2021), https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41464.4 James M. Acton, “Hypersonic Boost-Glide Weapons,” Science and Global Security 23 (2015): 191–219, http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs23acton.pdf; David Wright, “Research Note to Hypersonic Boost-Glide Weapons by James M. Acton: Analysis of the Boost Phase of the HTV-2 Hypersonic Glider Tests,” Science and Global Security 23 (201","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"23 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135274058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ceci N’est Pas Une Bombe: Lessons from a Field Experiment Using Neutron and Gamma Measurements to Confirm the Absence of Nuclear Weapons","authors":"Eric Lepowsky, Manuel Kreutle, Christoph Wirz, Alexander Glaser","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2252254","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2252254","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractIn March 2023, the UN Institute for Disarmament Research held a verification experiment that included a mockup onsite inspection at a former military facility in the municipality of Menzingen, Switzerland. The experiment included a visit to the site by an inspection team, accompanied by the host team. Among other activities, radiation measurements were used to confirm the non-nuclear nature of selected items stored onsite. In this paper, we discuss the neutron and gamma measurement systems used during the experiment and the inspection protocols followed to confirm the absence of nuclear weapons. Results from the experiment and a laboratory reproduction are presented, before concluding with lessons learned for how absence-confirmation measurements can help support verification of future arms control agreements. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).AcknowledgementsThe experimental analog presented in this work would not have been possible without the support of numerous researchers, staff, and the Health Physics team from Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. We also thank Gawoon Shim for assistance with the production of the ACX2. We acknowledge the Spiez Laboratory, UNIDIR, and the Swiss Armed Forces for their coordination in making these measurements possible. Special thanks go to David Chichester, Steve Fetter, Moritz Kütt, Pavel Podvig, and all other participants in the Menzingen Verification Experiment. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful feedback, which significantly improved the published version of this manuscript; two new endnotes are based on specific suggestions made by the reviewers. Eric Lepowsky’s contributions to this project have been supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. DGE-2039656. This work was partly supported by the Consortium for Monitoring, Technology, and Verification under the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration award number DE-NA0003920.Notes1 M. Göttsche and A. Glaser (eds.), Toward Nuclear Disarmament: Building Up Transparency and Verification (Berlin: German Federal Foreign Office, 2021); P. Podvig and J. Rodgers, Deferred Verification: Verifiable Declarations of Fissile Material Stocks (Geneva: UNIDIR, 2017).2 Treaty Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (“New START”), April 2010; Radiation Detection Equipment: An Arms Control Verification Tool, Product No. 211P, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Fort Belvoir, VA, October 2011.3 S. Fetter, V. A. Frolov, A. Miller, R. Mozley, O. F. Prilutsky, S. N. Rodionov, and R. Z. Sagdeev, “Detecting Nuclear Warheads,” Science & Global Security 1, no. 3–4 (1990): 225–253.4 Deferred verification is a proposed arrangement, in which an initial declaration is verified only at the time when the materials or items that","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135208082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional approach to strengthening biosafety and biosecurity systems in Africa","authors":"Talkmore Maruta, Jaures Arnaud Noumedem Kenfack, Yenew Kebede Tebeje, Donewell Bangure, Ahmed E Ogwell Ouma","doi":"10.1080/23779497.2023.2257766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23779497.2023.2257766","url":null,"abstract":"The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention Biosafety and Biosecurity Initiative being implemented across the 55 African Union Member States is presented. Based on consultations with Member States between 2019 and 2021, national-level capacity gaps were identified which informed the biosafety and biosecurity 5-year (2021–2025) strategic plan. The process of identifying national gaps, development, implementation and monitoring of the 5-year strategic plan is described. Notable achievements include development of a regional biosafety and biosecurity legislative framework now approved by African Union structures and process of domestication that has started in some countries; establishment and operationalisation of multi-sectoral regional biosafety and biosecurity technical working groups tasked with coordinating and monitoring implementation of the initiative, development and implementation of an accessible and regionally endorsed Regional Training and Certification Program for Biosafety and Biosecurity Professionals; establishment of a Regional Centre of Excellence for biosafety and biosecurity from where two cohorts of students in the two areas of biorisk management (16 students from 8 countries) and biological waste management (19 students from 10 countries) have been trained and development of a Regulatory and Certification Framework for Institutions Handling High-Risk Pathogens with three components of minimum standards of biosafety and biosecurity for high-containment facilities, a standard evaluation checklist for checking compliance and a certification framework for authorising performance of tasks related to dangerous pathogens. A guidance document with step-by-step process on how to translate regional successes to national implementation was developed and published. Based on notable regional successes of the initiative, Africa CDC co-chaired the Global Health Security Agenda Action Package 3 on Prevention and the Africa Signature Initiative Biosafety and Biosecurity Working Group. Challenges of delayed implementation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, limited resources to implement all planned activities and limited staff dedicated to biosafety and biosecuruty at Africa CDC.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135734625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating the Passive Neutron and Gamma Signatures of Containerized Nuclear Warheads for Disarmament Verification","authors":"Svenja Sonder, Carina Prünte, Y. Fischer, Manuel Kreutle, Jan Scheunemann, G. Kirchner","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2223832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2223832","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract For nuclear disarmament verification, measuring passive neutron and gamma signatures is discussed for confirming the presence of weapons-grade plutonium. Using the Geant4 code, the effects of neutron and photon interactions with the various materials of containerized items are explored for (i) notional fission and thermonuclear warheads waiting for dismantlement, (ii) intentionally shielded plutonium in a scrap container. Due to strong neutronic linking of the various warhead materials neutron multiplicity measurements can not be expected to give correct results. Gamma emissions of the plutonium may even be completely shielded by a tamper. Gamma spectrometry could verify the presence of explosives from (n,γ) activation of hydrogen and nitrogen as well as of fission processes from their prompt fission gamma emissions. Limiting diameters of scrap containers together with long-time gamma measurements of the absence of photons produced by (n,γ) activation of shielding materials will provide an effective approach for detecting an intentional diversion of plutonium.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"60 1","pages":"16 - 40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86465668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Radioactive Fallout and Potential Fatalities from Nuclear Attacks on China’s New Missile Silo Fields","authors":"Sébastien Philippe, I. Stepanov","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2215590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2215590","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract China is constructing three new nuclear ballistic missile silo fields near the cities of Yumen, Hami, and Ordos as part of a significant buildup of its nuclear weapon arsenal. Once operational, these missile silos will likely be included as targets in U.S. strategic counterforce war plans. Such plans call for using one or two nuclear warheads to strike each silo. Such attacks can generate large amounts of radioactive debris that are then transported by local winds and can deliver lethal doses of radiation to population hundreds of kilometers away. Here, we compute radioactive fallout from counterforce attacks on the three new alleged missile silo fields using the combination of a nuclear war simulator and modern atmospheric particle transport software and recent archived weather data. We find that the construction of these new silos will put tens of millions of Chinese civilians at risk of lethal fallout including in East China. In particular, the relatively short distance between the Ordos missile field and Beijing and the local winds patterns for the region, suggest that about half of the 21 million inhabitants of the Chinese capital could die following a counterforce strike, even if given advanced warning to shelter in place.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"41 1","pages":"3 - 15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86454023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of the Infrared Emission from a Generic Hypersonic Glide Vehicle”—A Response","authors":"C. Tracy, David Wright","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2215587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2215587","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A recent paper by Candler and Leyva in Science & Global Security comments on our 2020 paper “Modelling the Performance of Hypersonic Boost-Glide Missiles” analyzing the capabilities of hypersonic boost-glide weapons. They provide useful new data on several previously uncertain aspects of glide vehicle aerodynamics and report results from computational fluid dynamics calculations of heating and infrared light emission from hypersonic vehicles during the glide phase. They report infrared emissions lower than those we reported but still above the minimum detection threshold of modern U.S. space sensors. We discuss how Candler and Leyva’s new data can be incorporated into our analytical model and identify significant, unresolved discrepancies between their results and those of a previously published computational fluid dynamics analysis of the same glide vehicle. Finally, we comment on the role of social processes in the construction of knowledge about hypersonic weapon performance.","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"20 1","pages":"41 - 47"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73041235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editors’ Note","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/08929882.2023.2228086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/08929882.2023.2228086","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55952,"journal":{"name":"Science & Global Security","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136375314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}