模型复杂性和准确性:COVID-19案例研究

IF 2.5 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2022-07-21 DOI:10.1287/deca.2022.0457
Colin Small, J. Bickel
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引用次数: 3

摘要

在为预测和决策创建数学模型时,人们倾向于包含比必要的更复杂的东西,因为人们相信高保真度的模型比简单的模型更准确。在本文中,我们分析了向美国疾病控制和预防中心提交COVID-19预测的模型的性能,并对使用简单线性回归指定的简单双方程模型进行了评估。我们发现,我们的简单模型在准确性上与广为宣传的模型相当,并且具有最佳校准的预测。考虑到许多COVID-19模型的复杂性以及大型预测团队的支持,这一结果可能令人惊讶。然而,我们的结果与研究主体一致,表明简单模型在各种环境中都表现得很好。
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Model Complexity and Accuracy: A COVID-19 Case Study
When creating mathematical models for forecasting and decision making, there is a tendency to include more complexity than necessary, in the belief that higher-fidelity models are more accurate than simpler ones. In this paper, we analyze the performance of models that submitted COVID-19 forecasts to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and evaluate them against a simple two-equation model that is specified using simple linear regression. We find that our simple model was comparable in accuracy to highly publicized models and had among the best-calibrated forecasts. This result may be surprising given the complexity of many COVID-19 models and their support by large forecasting teams. However, our result is consistent with the body of research that suggests that simple models perform very well in a variety of settings.
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来源期刊
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis MANAGEMENT-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
21.10%
发文量
19
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