对外依赖型经济中本国货币的价值变化&危机背景下土耳其的例子

H. B. Irhan, I. B. Oran
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摘要

本文从增加或不减少经常项目赤字的角度来定义货币贬值在一般经济政策中为减少经常项目赤字和增加出口而实现的地位,并将其称为“贬值悖论”。在此背景下,本文研究了货币贬值、通货膨胀、失业和经常账户赤字变量对依赖外国经济的国家货币的影响。为此,对货币贬值前后的变化进行了比较。利用消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)数据评估了2019冠状病毒病期间土耳其里拉价值的变化及其与通货膨胀的关系。此外,还旨在揭示一国货币价值与外汇进出口的关系。在土耳其的例子范围内,根据在2019冠状病毒病过程中所经历的影响,对本国货币的变化、价格总水平的上升和失业的转变进行了评估。因此,它试图证明依赖外国对生产和消费的负面影响,认为这是一种经验,应该从中吸取教训,以应对这一流行病造成的全球经济危机进程。本文旨在为确定需要修订的经济政策提供最佳建议。
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Value Changes in National Currency in Foreign-Dependent Economies & Turkey Example in The Context of Crises
In this paper, the status of devaluation realized in general economic policies to decrease current account deficit and increase exports in terms of increasing or not decreasing current account deficit is defined and used as the "Devaluation Paradox." In this context, in this paper, the effects of devaluation, inflation, unemployment, and current account deficit variables on national currency in foreign-dependent economies have been investigated. For this purpose, changes that took place before and after devaluation have been compared. The change in the value of the Turkish Lira and its relation to inflation in the COVID-19 process have been evaluated with Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. In addition, it has been aimed to reveal the relationship of national currency value with import and outflow of foreign currency. Within the scope of Turkey's example, based on the effects experienced in the COVID-19 process, the changes in the national currency, increases in the general level of prices and transformation in unemployment have been evaluated. As a result, it has been tried to demonstrate the negative effects of foreign dependency on production and consumption, considering it an experience from which lessons should be taken regarding the global economic crisis process resulting from the pandemic. This paper aimed to reach optimal recommendations for determining economic policies, which need to be revised.
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