Divergence in fertility levels and patterns of muslim-majority countries of maghreb and middle/West Africa

Abstract There has been a divergence in the pace of fertility decline between the Muslim-dominated countries of Maghreb and those of Middle/West Africa (despite having similar religious beliefs, which studies have implicated as a major determinant of fertility behaviours). While the Maghreb countries have total fertility rate ranging between 2 and 3, it ranges between 6 and 7 in Muslim-majority countries of Middle/West Africa. Factors other than religion seem to be responsible for this divergent pattern. Evidence is sparse on this. This paper provides empirical evidence on factors influencing divergent pattern in fertility levels of selected Muslim-dominated countries of Maghreb and Middle/West Africa. Based on availability of recent data, this paper drew on Demographic and Health Survey data of three Middle/West Africa countries—Mali (2013–14), Niger (2012) and Northern Nigeria (2013); and two North African countries—Egypt (2014) and Morocco (2003–04). Relationships were explored using Poisson regression models that adjusted for religion and women characteristics. Findings showed that age at first marriage, age at first birth, contraceptive use, child mortality, plurality of marriage and women education are the major drivers of divergence in fertility patterns of the selected countries in both sub-regions. Differences in proximate determinants of fertility played significant roles in shaping the divergent pattern in fertility levels between both sub-regions. Rather than focusing on religion, this study suggests the need for transition in the proximate determinants of fertility in Middle/West African countries, if the sub-region would achieve the desired fertility decline.