加纳的环境退化、能源使用和全球化:来自制度转换和神经网络自回归模型的新经验证据

IF 3.6 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Sustainability: Science, Practice, and Policy Pub Date : 2022-09-23 DOI:10.1080/15487733.2022.2110680
Bright Tetteh, Samuel Tawiah Baidoo
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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要本研究利用马尔可夫转换(MS)模型探讨了环境退化、能源使用和全球化之间的关系,这是以往关于加纳的研究没有考虑到的。我们使用这种方法是因为它能够检测到可能的非线性关系。神经网络自回归(NNAR [p, k])模型也被用来预测该国未来十年的二氧化碳(CO2)排放量。在此过程中,采用了1971-2016年期间二氧化碳排放、人均国内生产总值(GDP)、能源使用和KOF (Konjunkturforschungsstelle)全球化指数的二次时间序列数据。所有三个MS估计的结果都不支持加纳环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)的存在。结果进一步表明,能源使用和整体全球化指数导致更多的二氧化碳排放,从而导致环境恶化。经济全球化对环境也有危害,而社会全球化和政治全球化在不同制度下的影响是不同的。NNAR(14,8)估算的预测结果还表明,加纳未来十年的二氧化碳排放量将呈上升趋势。调查结果的含义是,迫切需要加强和/或修订该国的环境政策,更加注重符合《巴黎协定》和《京都议定书》的缓解战略。随着经济的扩张,这些措施可能会抑制二氧化碳的排放。为改善加纳的环境质量,还提出了进一步研究的建议和领域,供政策考虑。
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Environmental degradation, energy use, and globalization in Ghana: New empirical evidence from regime switching and neural network autoregression models
Abstract This study investigates the nexus between environmental degradation, energy use, and globalization using Markov-switching (MS) models which previous studies on Ghana have not considered. We utilize this method because of its ability to detect possible non-linear relationships. The Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR [p, k]) model is also employed to predict carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions for the country over the next decade. In doing so, secondary time-series data on CO2 releases, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), energy use, and KOF (Konjunkturforschungsstelle) globalization indexes spanning the period 1971–2016 are employed. The results from all three MS estimations show no support for the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Ghana. The results further demonstrate that energy use and an overall globalization index result in more CO2 emissions causing deterioration of the environment. Economic globalization is also revealed to harm the environment whereas social and political globalization have different effects in different regimes. The forecast results from the NNAR (14, 8) estimation also indicate that Ghana will have an upward trajectory of CO2 discharge for the next decade. The implication of the findings is that there is an urgent need for strengthening and/or revising environmental policies in the country with greater focus on mitigation strategies in line with the Paris Agreement and Kyoto Protocol. These measures are likely to curb CO2 emissions as the economy expands. Recommendations and areas for further research to improve the environmental quality in Ghana are also provided for policy consideration.
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来源期刊
Sustainability: Science, Practice, and Policy
Sustainability: Science, Practice, and Policy Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
12.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
54
审稿时长
27 weeks
期刊介绍: Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy is a refereed, open-access journal which recognizes that climate change and other socio-environmental challenges require significant transformation of existing systems of consumption and production. Complex and diverse arrays of societal factors and institutions will in coming decades need to reconfigure agro-food systems, implement renewable energy sources, and reinvent housing, modes of mobility, and lifestyles for the current century and beyond. These innovations will need to be formulated in ways that enhance global equity, reduce unequal access to resources, and enable all people on the planet to lead flourishing lives within biophysical constraints. The journal seeks to advance scientific and political perspectives and to cultivate transdisciplinary discussions involving researchers, policy makers, civic entrepreneurs, and others. The ultimate objective is to encourage the design and deployment of both local experiments and system innovations that contribute to a more sustainable future by empowering individuals and organizations and facilitating processes of social learning.
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