金融全球化、产出缺口和对外产出缺口对通胀的影响:来自发展中经济体的证据

M. Bhatti, I. Chaudhry, H. Rehman, F. Bashir
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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文在弥补前人研究不足的基础上,利用非均质面板GMM技术对理论模型进行了重新检验,克服了截面依赖性。在目前的发展中国家样本中,开发了两个模型;模型1包含国内产出缺口,模型2包含国外产出缺口。根据模型1,国外全球化和进口提高了发展中国家和分解分析(低收入、中低收入和中高收入国家)的通货膨胀水平。产出缺口阻碍了整体、中低收入和中高收入国家的通胀,同时推高了低收入国家的通胀。失业率提高了整体和中等收入群体的通货膨胀率,而在低收入和高收入国家,通货膨胀率则下降。根据第二种模型,国外全球化和国外产出缺口总体上促进了低收入、中等收入和中高收入群体的发展。虽然进口降低了全球通胀水平,但在低收入、中等收入和中高收入群体中,进口却加剧了通胀。最后,失业水平提高了全球通货膨胀水平和低收入群体的通货膨胀水平,并阻碍了中高收入群体的通货膨胀率。尽管如此,各国的影响仍有相当大的差异,这可能是由于政治机构的质量、央行的独立性、汇率制度、金融发展和法律传统的差异。
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Financial Globalization, Output Gap and Foreign Output Gap on inflation: Evidenced from Developing Economies
This paper covers previous studies' deficiencies and re-examine the theoretical model using a heterogeneous panel GMM technique, which overcomes cross-section dependency. In the current sample of developing nations, developed two models'; model 1 consists of the domestic output gap, and the second model includes the foreign output gap. According to model 1, foreign globalization and imports boost the inflation level in developing countries and disaggregation analysis (low, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries). The output gap impedes inflation in overall, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries, while it boosts inflation in low-income nations. And unemployment level increases the inflation rate in the overall and middle-income groups, while in low- and high-income countries, it decreases. According to the second model, foreign globalization and the foreign output gap boost overall low-income, middle-income, and upper-middle-income groups. While import reduces the inflation level globally, while in low-income, middle-income, and upper-middle-income groups, it increases inflation. Finally, the unemployment level boosts the global inflation level and as well as in low income, and it impedes inflation rate in upper-middle-income group. Despite this, there is considerable variation in countries' effect, perhaps due to differences in political institutions' quality, central bank independence, exchange rate systems, financial development, and legal traditions.
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