基于大数据和人工智能算法的层状油藏水驱动态预测

Cunliang Chen, Ming Yang, Xiaodong Han, Jianbo Zhang
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引用次数: 5

摘要

管理油藏产油量以实现资产未来经济回报最大化是石油工程中的一个重要问题。其中最重要的问题之一是水驱性能的预测。传统策略由于运行时间长、信息量大,难以解决这一问题。因此,迫切需要形成一种快速的智能预测方法,特别是随着大数据处理和人工智能方法的发展。本文提出了一种利用大数据和人工智能算法预测水驱性能的新方法。该方法将层状储层视为一系列单层储层的垂直叠加。分别建立了各单层油藏的注采分析模型。然后仅利用生产资料和测井资料建立了叠加模型。最后,利用最小二乘原理和粒子群优化算法对模型进行优化,并对水驱性能进行预测。该方法已在不同的合成油藏案例中进行了测试。计算结果与数值模拟结果吻合较好。平均相对误差为4.59%,计算时间仅为人工智能方法数值模拟的1/10。结果表明,该技术具有预测水驱动态的能力。这些实例表明,使用人工智能方法不仅大大缩短了工作时间,而且具有更高的精度。利用该方法可以方便、准确地预测储层水驱动态。它对油田开发、增加或减少投资、钻新井以及未来的注入计划都具有重要作用。
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Water Flooding Performance Prediction in Layered Reservoir Using Big Data and Artificial Intelligence Algorithms
Managing oil production from reservoirs to maximize the future economic return of the asset is an important issue in petroleum engineering. One of the most important problems is the prediction of water flooding performance. Traditional strategies have been widely used with a long run time and too much information to solve this problem. Therefore, it is urgent to form a fast intelligent prediction method, especially with the development of large data processing and artificial intelligence methods. This paper proposed a new method to predict water flooding performance using big data and artificial intelligence algorithms. The method regards layered reservoir as a vertical superposition of a series of single layer reservoirs. An injection-production analysis model is established in each single layer reservoir respectively. And then a superposition model is established only by production data and logging tools data. Finally, the least square principle and the particle swarm optimization algorithm are used to optimize the model and predict water flooding performance. This method has been tested for different synthetic reservoir case studies. The results are in good agreement in comparison with the numerical simulation results. The average relative error is 4.59%, but the calculation time is only 1/10 of that of numerical simulation by using artificial intelligence method. It showed that this technique has capability to predict water flooding performance. These examples showed that the use of artificial intelligence method not only greatly shortens the working time, but also has a higher accuracy. By this paper, it is possible to predict the water flooding performance easily and accurately in reservoirs. It has an important role in the field development, increasing or decreasing investment, drilling new wells and future injection schedule.
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