亚洲大选前后异常回报分析

Steven Lesmana, S. Sumani
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在运用事件研究的概念,从异常收益的角度考察资本市场对政治事件的反应。由于以往类似的研究结果存在矛盾,需要进一步的研究。本研究采用事件研究法、累积平均异常收益法(CAAR)对大选期间的异常收益进行比较。该研究旨在比较亚洲4个国家的股市活动,这些国家每5年举行一次大选,条件是这些国家的大选必须在一天内完成。该指数是根据各国最近5次大选中代表该国的股指每日数据进行计算的。该研究估计使用了120天的时间和33天的观察时间。研究表明,在所有被测试的国家中,过去五次大选前后的平均异常回报没有显著差异。由于投资者的预期、投资者的行为、信息流通的数量和速度等多种因素的影响,会出现这种情况。要找出我国有效市场的形式,还需要进一步的研究。
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Abnormal Return Analysis Before and After General Election in Asia
The research aimed to examine the capital market`s reaction to political events as seen from the abnormal return using the event study concept. Since there are conflicting results of similar previous studies, further research is needed. The research used event study methods, cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) to compare abnormal returns during the general election. The research intended to compare stock market activities where there are general elections in four countries in Asia which conduct general elections every five years, and with the condition that the general elections in those countries must be completed within one day. The calculation was carried out on the stock index`s daily data representing the country in the last five events general elections in each country. The research used an estimated period of 120 days and a time of observation of 33 days. Research shows no significant difference between the average abnormal returns before and after the general election event in the last five events for all the countries tested. It can occur due to various factors, such as the anticipation made by investors, investors' behavior, and the amount and speed of information circulating. Further research is required to find out the form of the country`s efficient market.
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