{"title":"形成预测克麦罗沃地区大学入学人数的数学模型","authors":"T. Bobko","doi":"10.18254/s207751800019818-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the study of the influence of regional macroeconomic indicators on the number of applicants for training in higher education programs in the universities of Kuzbass. The previous studies carried out by the authors served as the basis for the development of a model that allows obtaining an advanced estimate of the number of applicants for admission to regional universities [4]. The results obtained in [3] made it possible to quantitatively determine the relationship between the number of students in higher education programs and the gross regional product (GRP) of the Kemerovo region, as well as to draw a conclusion about the influence of regional macroeconomic indicators on the choice of education level by graduates. On the basis of the constructed model, the forecast of the number of students in HE programs in the universities of the Kemerovo region for one period ahead was carried out with a relative forecasting error of 2.45%.","PeriodicalId":51498,"journal":{"name":"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Formation of a mathematical model for predicting the number of applicants entering universities in the Kemerovo region\",\"authors\":\"T. Bobko\",\"doi\":\"10.18254/s207751800019818-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The article is devoted to the study of the influence of regional macroeconomic indicators on the number of applicants for training in higher education programs in the universities of Kuzbass. The previous studies carried out by the authors served as the basis for the development of a model that allows obtaining an advanced estimate of the number of applicants for admission to regional universities [4]. The results obtained in [3] made it possible to quantitatively determine the relationship between the number of students in higher education programs and the gross regional product (GRP) of the Kemerovo region, as well as to draw a conclusion about the influence of regional macroeconomic indicators on the choice of education level by graduates. On the basis of the constructed model, the forecast of the number of students in HE programs in the universities of the Kemerovo region for one period ahead was carried out with a relative forecasting error of 2.45%.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51498,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.18254/s207751800019818-8\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Jasss-The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.18254/s207751800019818-8","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Formation of a mathematical model for predicting the number of applicants entering universities in the Kemerovo region
The article is devoted to the study of the influence of regional macroeconomic indicators on the number of applicants for training in higher education programs in the universities of Kuzbass. The previous studies carried out by the authors served as the basis for the development of a model that allows obtaining an advanced estimate of the number of applicants for admission to regional universities [4]. The results obtained in [3] made it possible to quantitatively determine the relationship between the number of students in higher education programs and the gross regional product (GRP) of the Kemerovo region, as well as to draw a conclusion about the influence of regional macroeconomic indicators on the choice of education level by graduates. On the basis of the constructed model, the forecast of the number of students in HE programs in the universities of the Kemerovo region for one period ahead was carried out with a relative forecasting error of 2.45%.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation is an interdisciplinary journal for the exploration and understanding of social processes by means of computer simulation. Since its first issue in 1998, it has been a world-wide leading reference for readers interested in social simulation and the application of computer simulation in the social sciences. Original research papers and critical reviews on all aspects of social simulation and agent societies that fall within the journal"s objective to further the exploration and understanding of social processes by means of computer simulation are welcome.
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