中国及其主要贸易伙伴股票市场的收益和波动溢出效应:来自沪市股灾的证据

Muhammad Owais Qarni, Gulzar Saqib
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本文采用Diebold和Yilmaz(2012)的溢出指数模型,分析了上海证券交易所(SSE)崩盘对其主要贸易伙伴(mtp)——美国(标准普尔500指数)、德国(DAX指数)、日本(日经225指数)、韩国(KOSPI指数)和香港(HSI指数)的回报和波动溢出效应。研究结果表明,在样本期内,上交所与证券交易所之间的收益和波动率溢出均有所增加。研究发现,收益溢出传导高于波动性溢出传导。结果还表明,上海证券交易所对美国和德国股市的回报水平较低,波动性溢出。上证指数与恒生指数之间存在高度整合的证据,促进了地理邻近对金融市场整合的影响。上海证券交易所与美国和德国股市之间的低收益和波动溢出效应为国际投资者提供了有益的投资组合多元化收益。本研究的结果为潜在投资者在危机时期做出合理的投资组合多元化决策提供了有用的信息。
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Return and Volatility Spillover across stock markets of China and its Major Trading Partners: Evidence from Shanghai Stock Exchange Crash
This study analyses the return and volatility spillover effects of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) crash to its Major Trading Partners (MTPs) – U.S.A. (S&P 500), Germany (DAX), Japan (Nikkei 225), South Korea (KOSPI), and Hong Kong (HSI) - using Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover index model. The findings indicate the presence of increased return and volatility spillover between SSE and stock exchanges of MTPs during the sample period. The return spillover transmission is found to be higher than the volatility spillover transmission. Results also highlighted low level of return and volatility spillover from SSE to the stock markets of U.S.A. and Germany. Evidence of high integration between SSE and HSI are also indicated, which promote the geographical proximity impact on financial markets integration. The low return and volatility spillover between SSE and the stock markets of U.S.A. and Germany provide useful portfolio diversification benefits for international investors. The findings of this study provide useful information to potential investors for making rational decisions regarding portfolio diversification in the periods of crisis.
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