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An Empirical Examination of Relative Income Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan 相对收入假说的实证检验:来自巴基斯坦的证据
Pub Date : 2021-03-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/13.1.1
Mehr u Nisa Ishtiaq, Tahira Tauheed, Isma Ishtiaq
The present study empirically investigates the relevance of the various specifications of relative Income hypothesis (RIH) in the case of Pakistan. World Development Indicators’ data is analyzed over the period of 1986 to 2016. This study tests the existence of income, consumption, and habit ratchet effects at the National level. Based on stationarity tests the techniques of Box Jenkin, Two Stage Least Square, Generalized Methods of Moments, and Limited Information Maximum Likelihood Method are utilized to estimate the four versions of relative income hypothesis. Findings of this research validate the significant prevalence of three types of ratchet effects in case of Pakistan. In Duesenberry-Eckstein-Formm (DEF) model, habit ratchet effect is found to be stronger than income ratchet effect. Whereas in modified Davis model Consumption ratchet effect exceeds the habit ratchet effect. It is observed that long run marginal propensities to consume are closer to one which demonstrates smooth consumption behavior over long period in Pakistan. The estimated short run marginal propensities to consume are observed to be less than long run marginal propensities to consume that accords with the existing consumption theory. These findings imply that all ratchet effects put pressure upon consumers to maintain the highest standard of living enjoyed in the past. In this process households do not retain balance between savings and consumption. Based on these findings, it is suggested to consider the impact of societal factor in formulating policies to shape the consumption patterns.
本研究在巴基斯坦的情况下实证调查了相对收入假设(RIH)的各种规格的相关性。《世界发展指标》的数据分析时间为1986年至2016年。本研究在国家层面上检验了收入、消费和习惯棘轮效应的存在。在平稳性检验的基础上,利用Box Jenkin、两阶段最小二乘法、广义矩量法和有限信息极大似然法对四种版本的相对收入假设进行了估计。本研究的结果证实了三种棘轮效应在巴基斯坦的显著流行。在duesenberry - eckstein - form (DEF)模型中,发现习惯棘轮效应强于收入棘轮效应。而在修正的Davis模型中,消费棘轮效应超过习惯棘轮效应。可以观察到,长期边际消费倾向更接近于巴基斯坦长期平稳消费行为。根据现有的消费理论,观察到估计的短期边际消费倾向小于长期边际消费倾向。这些发现表明,所有棘轮效应都给消费者施加了压力,要求他们维持过去享有的最高生活水平。在这个过程中,家庭没有保持储蓄和消费之间的平衡。在此基础上,建议在制定政策以塑造消费模式时考虑社会因素的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Managing Equity Investment Risk and Rate of Return Risk in Islamic Banking: A System Thinking Approach 伊斯兰银行股权投资风险与收益率风险管理:系统思维方法
Pub Date : 2021-03-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/13.1.3
M. Farhan, Hassan Mobeen Alam, S. Jabeen
This study aims to examine and explore the risk management practices with respect to Rate of Return Risk (RORR) and Equity Investment Risk (EIR) in the Islamic Banking Institutions (IBIs) of Pakistan through a systematic model which is called System Dynamic Model (SDM) by using system thinking methodology. This study has been conducted in three sequential phases to develop the qualitative System Dynamic Model for Rate of Return Risk Management and Equity Investment Risk Management. Firstly, the researchers developed preliminary Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) based on the initial understanding achieved from the causal interconnections between various RORR and EIR characters through extensive literature review. Secondly, the researchers conducted semi-structured interviews with the experts to ratify, endorse and refine the initial CLD. Lastly, the data collected through interviews was analyzed to develop the final refined qualitative SDM. The study's findings indicate that the identification and measurement of the RORR and EIR in IBIs in Pakistan need to be strengthened by developing appropriate methodology. Moreover, the practices adopted by these financial institutions to mitigate and control the exposures of RORR and EIR are good and effective. This Qualitative SDM provides practical, constructive and productive understanding to the managers, policy-makers, regulators, shareholders and scholars regarding the RORR and EIR management mechanism of IBIs of Pakistan.
本研究旨在通过使用系统思维方法,通过称为系统动态模型(SDM)的系统模型,研究和探索巴基斯坦伊斯兰银行机构(IBIs)的回报率风险(RORR)和股权投资风险(EIR)的风险管理实践。本研究分三个阶段进行,以建立收益率风险管理和股权投资风险管理的定性系统动态模型。首先,研究人员通过大量的文献回顾,初步了解了各种RORR和EIR特征之间的因果关系,并据此绘制了初步的因果循环图(CLD)。其次,研究人员对专家进行了半结构化访谈,以批准、认可和完善初始CLD。最后,通过访谈收集的数据进行分析,以开发最终的精细化定性SDM。研究结果表明,巴基斯坦ibi的RORR和EIR的识别和测量需要通过制定适当的方法来加强。此外,这些金融机构采取的缓解和控制rrr和EIR风险的做法是良好和有效的。这一定性SDM为管理者、政策制定者、监管机构、股东和学者提供了关于巴基斯坦ibi RORR和EIR管理机制的实用、建设性和富有成效的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing the role of values, beliefs and attitude in developing sustainable behavioral intentions: empirical evidence from electric power industry 价值观、信念和态度在发展可持续行为意向中的作用分析:来自电力行业的经验证据
Pub Date : 2021-03-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/13.1.2
Muhammad Danish Habib, Hassan Jalil Shah, A. Qayyum
Energy conservation is an economic, social, and environmental issue that offers various academic, practical, and policy implications. The growing magnitude, complexity, and relevance of energy wastage have attracted the attention of scholars and practitioners. There is a lack of consumer awareness towards electricity conservation practices of household consumers in the context of developing countries. This research utilized the theory of planned behavior to explain sustainable behavioral intentions in the context of electricity conservation. This research aims to measure the effect of beliefs, values, and attitudes on sustainable behavioral intentions in the energy conservation context. This research hypothesized awareness, compatibility, perceived value, resistance to change, and actual gain as predictors of attitude towards energy conservation and sustainable behavioral intentions. Using survey methodology, purposive sampling techniques were used to collect the data from young household consumers. Data of 246 electricity consumers of Pakistan were analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results of the study validate a significant relationship between attitude towards energy conservation and sustainable behavioral intentions. Based on results, it has been established that the amount of actual gain intentions and awareness are the main contributors to attitude towards energy conservation and sustainable behavioral intention. Compatibility and resistance to change were also significant precipitators of attitude towards energy conservation and sustainable behavioral intention. Perceived value was found a significant predictor of attitude towards energy conservation while insignificant towards sustainable behavioral intention. The study findings have a significant impact on government, policymakers, marketers, and academics interested in developing strategies to mitigate the effects of energy wastage. Prevention of resource wastage depends upon the awareness and consumption practices of the customers.
节能是一个经济、社会和环境问题,具有各种学术、实践和政策意义。能源浪费日益增长的规模、复杂性和相关性引起了学者和实践者的关注。在发展中国家,消费者对家庭消费者节约用电的做法缺乏认识。本研究利用计划行为理论来解释电力节约背景下的可持续行为意图。本研究旨在探讨节能背景下信念、价值观和态度对可持续行为意向的影响。本研究假设意识、相容性、感知价值、抗拒改变和实际收获是节能态度和可持续行为意向的预测因子。采用调查方法,采用有目的抽样技术收集年轻家庭消费者的数据。采用验证性因子分析(CFA)和结构方程模型(SEM)对巴基斯坦246名电力消费者的数据进行了分析。研究结果验证了节能态度与可持续行为意愿之间的显著关系。结果表明,实际收益意愿和意识的多少是影响节能态度和可持续行为意愿的主要因素。对变化的适应和抗拒也是节能态度和可持续行为意向的重要诱发因素。感知价值对节能态度有显著的预测作用,而对可持续行为意向的预测作用不显著。研究结果对政府、政策制定者、市场营销人员和有兴趣制定策略以减轻能源浪费影响的学者具有重大影响。防止资源浪费取决于顾客的意识和消费行为。
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引用次数: 2
Account of a female Pakistani Ph.D. scholar: An Autoethnographic exploration 一位巴基斯坦女博士学者的记述:自我民族志探索
Pub Date : 2021-03-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/13.1.4
Maimoona Saleem
There is a paucity of scholarship about what to anticipate in the course of a Ph.D. program, the emotional toll, and embodied experience of a Ph.D. candidate — research that unveils the innards of Ph.D. experiences, predominantly female academics and is more upfront about it is much lacking. A “reflexive narrative approach” combined with a feminist outlook, using memory as a data source has been used to station an understanding of experience into a broader array of literature. By this, the author explores the meaning of her doctoral journey. The author details and describes her experience, thoughts, and struggles with the self and others during this journey. Through this process, the author gains tenor, reckoning, and a better sense of direction for the future.
关于在博士课程中可以预见什么、博士生的情感代价和具体经历的学术研究很少——揭示博士生经历内在的研究,主要是女性学者,而且更坦率地说,这方面的研究非常缺乏。一种“反身性叙事方法”与女权主义观点相结合,利用记忆作为数据源,将对经验的理解融入到更广泛的文学作品中。由此,作者探讨了她的博士之旅的意义。作者详细描述了她的经历、想法,以及在这段旅程中与自我和他人的斗争。通过这一过程,作者获得了基调、判断和对未来更好的方向感。
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引用次数: 0
How well do linear and nonlinear time series models’ forecasts compete with international economic organizations? 线性和非线性时间序列模型的预测与国际经济组织的竞争有多好?
Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/12.3.2
Tayyab Raza Fraz, J. Iqbal, Mudassir Uddin
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of linear and non-linear time series models of some macroeconomic variables viz a viz the forecasts outlook of these variables generated by professionals in international economic organizations i.e. the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Many time series and econometrics models are used to forecast financial and macroeconomic variables. The accuracy of such forecasts depends crucially on careful handling of nonlinearity present in the time series. The debate of forecasting ability of linear vs nonlinear models is far from settled. These models use the past patterns of the economic time series to infer the parameters of the underlying stochastic process and use them to make forecasts. In doing so these models use only the information contained in the past data. However the economists working in professional international economic organizations not only look at the past trends but use the condition of local and global economy prevailing at the time and expected future path of economies as well as their professional expertise and judgment to arrive at forecasts of macroeconomic variables. However the specific underlying models and methodology used by the economists generating these forecast is usually not communicated to the public. In comparison to the forecasts of these organizations the time series models are well developed and accessible to researchers working anywhere around the globe. Thus it is an interesting task to compare the foresting ability of linear and nonlinear time series models. This paper aims at comparing the forecasts from these models to assess how well they compete with forecasts generated from the professional economists employed by international economic organizations. The nonlinear models employed in this study are quite well known namely the Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model and the Markov Switching Autoregressive (MSAR) model. The linear models employed are the AR and ARMA models. The paper have used annual data of three macroeconomic time series variables GDP growth, consumer price inflation and exchange rate of G7 countries i.e. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom (UK) and United States of America (USA) as well as an emerging south Asian economy namely Pakistan. Three forecast accuracy criteria i.e. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are employed and the statistical significance of difference in forecasts is assessed using the Diebold-Mariono test. The results show that the forecasting ability of nonlinear Regime Switching models SETAR and MSAR is superior to the linear models. Further, although the point forecasts of linear and nonlinear models are not superior to that of economic organizations but in more than 60 percent of the cases considered the forecasting accuracy of two sets of forecast is not stat
本文评价了一些宏观经济变量的线性和非线性时间序列模型的预测效果,即国际货币基金组织(IMF)和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)等国际经济组织的专业人员对这些变量的预测前景。许多时间序列和计量经济学模型被用来预测金融和宏观经济变量。这种预测的准确性主要取决于对时间序列中存在的非线性的仔细处理。关于线性模型与非线性模型预测能力的争论还远远没有解决。这些模型利用经济时间序列的过去模式来推断潜在随机过程的参数,并利用它们进行预测。在这样做时,这些模型只使用过去数据中包含的信息。然而,在专业的国际经济组织工作的经济学家不仅要看过去的趋势,而且要利用当时当地和全球经济的普遍状况以及对经济未来路径的预期,以及他们的专业知识和判断来预测宏观经济变量。然而,经济学家做出这些预测所使用的具体基本模型和方法通常不会向公众公布。与这些组织的预测相比,时间序列模型发展得很好,并且在全球任何地方工作的研究人员都可以使用。因此,比较线性和非线性时间序列模型的森林能力是一项有趣的任务。本文旨在比较这些模型的预测,以评估它们与国际经济组织雇用的专业经济学家的预测的竞争程度。本文所采用的非线性模型是众所周知的自激阈值自回归(SETAR)模型和马尔可夫切换自回归(MSAR)模型。采用的线性模型是AR和ARMA模型。本文使用了加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本、英国和美国等七国集团(G7)国家以及新兴南亚经济体巴基斯坦三个宏观经济时间序列变量GDP增长、消费者价格通胀和汇率的年度数据。采用均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)三个预测精度标准,采用Diebold-Mariono检验评估预测差异的统计显著性。结果表明,非线性状态切换模型SETAR和MSAR的预测能力优于线性模型。此外,虽然线性和非线性模型的点预测并不优于经济组织的点预测,但在超过60%的情况下,两组预测的预测精度在统计上没有显著差异。
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引用次数: 0
Sentiment and Stock Returns: A Case for Conventional and Islamic equities in Pakistan 情绪和股票回报:巴基斯坦传统和伊斯兰股票的案例
Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/12.3.1
Sana Tauseef
The study constructs market sentiment index over the period from August 2009 to June 2019 and examines the causality between market sentiment and returns for conventional and Islamic stocks in Pakistan. Using the firm-level data for all stocks listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange, market sentiment index is constructed as the first principal component of six variables: advances-to-decline, premium on dividends, price-to-earnings, relative strength, money flow and turnover rate. We employ the Vector auto-regression model to examine the two-way causal relationship between investor sentiment and aggregate stock return. Our results show that market sentiment has strong predictive power for subsequent conventional stock returns. Sentiment based trading actions of the investors cause persistence in conventional stock returns for one month; however, as these stocks become overpriced, the price movement reverses in two months’ time. In contrast, we do not find any significant association between market sentiment and Islamic stock returns. Our findings are suggestive of different dynamics and investor behavior in Islamic financial markets of Pakistan and along with the existing literature documenting Islamic stocks performance to be at least as good as the conventional stock can be a comfort to the Muslim Investors and may serve as the catalyst to stimulate the growth of Islamic equities.
本研究构建了2009年8月至2019年6月期间的市场情绪指数,并检验了巴基斯坦传统和伊斯兰股票的市场情绪与回报之间的因果关系。利用巴基斯坦证券交易所所有上市股票的公司层面数据,构建了市场情绪指数,作为六个变量的第一主成分:涨跌比、股息溢价、市盈率、相对强弱、资金流和换手率。我们采用向量自回归模型来检验投资者情绪与股票总收益之间的双向因果关系。研究结果表明,市场情绪对后续常规股票收益具有较强的预测能力。投资者基于情绪的交易行为导致传统股票收益持续一个月;然而,当这些股票定价过高时,价格走势会在两个月内逆转。相比之下,我们没有发现市场情绪与伊斯兰股票回报之间存在任何显著关联。我们的研究结果暗示了巴基斯坦伊斯兰金融市场的不同动态和投资者行为,以及现有文献记录伊斯兰股票的表现至少与传统股票一样好,这对穆斯林投资者来说是一种安慰,并可能成为刺激伊斯兰股票增长的催化剂。
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引用次数: 2
Making Sense of Sensemaking Process In the Face of Organizational Environment 组织环境下意义生成过程的理解
Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/12.3.4
Sami Ullah Bajwa, A. Waseem, Ahmad Ahsan Akbar
Modern organization theory suggests that external environment is central to the organizational phenomena. Similarly, sensemaking is widely used to describe organizational actors and processes. Despite this significance of both constructs and their suggested interwoven occurrence in organizational landscape, sensemaking processes in the face of different types of organizational environments have not been studied. This paper furnishes a framework to describe which forms of sensemaking are useful in various types of organizational environment. At first, based on review of literature, we synthesized that sensemaking is a multifaceted process; which is retrospective as well perspective and continues as well as episodic. Moreover, it involves both individual and social cognition, and hence becomes individual as well organizational process. Subsequently, we have presented propositions regarding sensemaking processes in the face of simple, complex, dynamic and stable environments.
现代组织理论认为,外部环境是组织现象的中心。类似地,语义构建被广泛用于描述组织参与者和过程。尽管这两个构念及其在组织景观中的相互交织具有重要意义,但面对不同类型的组织环境时的意义制造过程尚未得到研究。本文提供了一个框架来描述哪些形式的语义在不同类型的组织环境中是有用的。首先,在文献综述的基础上,我们认为语义构建是一个多方面的过程;它是回顾性的,也是透视性的,是连续性的,也是情节性的。而且,它既涉及个人认知,也涉及社会认知,因此它既是个人的过程,也是组织的过程。随后,我们提出了关于简单、复杂、动态和稳定环境下的语义生成过程的命题。
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引用次数: 2
Credit Redistribution by Listed Manufacturing Firms in Pakistan and the Moderating Role of Financial Depth 巴基斯坦制造业上市公司信贷再分配与金融深度的调节作用
Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/12.4.1
N. Ahmad, B. Nafees, Abdul Rasheed
An enhancement in the financial depth (FD) increases the availability of formal credit to firms. Resultantly credit redistribution (CR) by firms is likely to be reduced as they require less trade credit (TC). To provide evidence, how do managers respond to changes in financial depth while making adjustments in their trade credit policy, this paper aims to study the impact of financial depth on credit redistribution by listed manufacturing firms (LMFs). For the firm-level variables, we used a data set of 327 firms listed on PSX for the period 2005 to 2018. Private credit to GDP ratio and market capitalization to GDP ratio are used as proxies for financial depth. Unlike earlier studies, we applied a two-step System GMM estimator to control the endogeneity. The results of the regression analysis display a positive relationship between the use and the supply of trade credit by LMFs. It reveals that LMFs redistribute credit to their customers through trade credit channel. We found a significant and negative impact of FD on the supply of TC by LMFs. Further, we established that financial depth as a moderator has a buffering impact on the credit redistribution by listed firms. The study highlights the moderating role of FD and suggests the financial policymakers of firms to modify their credit policies in response to changes in financial depth. For future research, we suggest the investigation of the effect of financial policy interventions on credit redistribution by small and non-listed firms.
金融深度(FD)的提高增加了企业获得正规信贷的可能性。结果,企业的信贷再分配(CR)可能会减少,因为它们需要较少的贸易信贷(TC)。本文旨在研究金融深度对制造业上市公司信贷再分配的影响,为研究管理者在调整贸易信贷政策时如何应对金融深度的变化提供证据。对于公司层面的变量,我们使用了2005年至2018年在PSX上市的327家公司的数据集。以民间信贷占GDP的比率和市值占GDP的比率作为金融深度的代理指标。与之前的研究不同,我们使用了一个两步系统GMM估计器来控制内生性。回归分析结果显示,低利率金融机构的贸易信贷使用与供给之间存在正相关关系。结果表明,lfs通过贸易信贷渠道将信贷再分配给客户。我们发现,FD对lfs的TC供应有显著的负面影响。进一步,我们确定了财务深度作为调节因子对上市公司信贷再分配具有缓冲作用。该研究强调了FD的调节作用,并建议企业的金融决策者根据金融深度的变化调整其信贷政策。对于未来的研究,我们建议研究金融政策干预对小型和非上市公司信贷再分配的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Return spillover across Bitcoin markets and foreign exchange pairs dominated in major trading currencies 在比特币市场和主要交易货币主导的外汇对之间的回报溢出
Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/12.3.5
Muhammad Owais Qarni, S. Gulzar
This study examines the dynamic nature of return spillover across Bitcoins indices and foreign exchange pairs denominated in 6 major trading currencies. The findings of spillover index, Spillover Asymmetry Measure (SAM) and frequency connectedness methodologies indicate that return spillover across Bitcoin markets and foreign exchange pairs dominated in six major trading currencies is very low. The intra-market return spillover for the Bitcoin markets and foreign exchange pairs is found to be significant. Presence of asymmetry in the return spillover is also found. Evidence indicates that return spillover are dominated in short horizon, with significant spillover occurring within 4 days of an event. The low integration of Bitcoin markets with the foreign exchange markets provide significant implication for portfolio diversification and risk minimization.
本研究考察了比特币指数和以6种主要交易货币计价的外汇对之间回报溢出的动态性质。溢出指数、溢出不对称度量(SAM)和频率连通性方法的研究结果表明,比特币市场和六种主要交易货币主导的外汇对的回报溢出非常低。比特币市场和外汇对的市场内回报溢出效应显著。此外,还发现了收益溢出的不对称性。有证据表明,收益溢出在短期内占主导地位,并在事件发生后4天内发生显著溢出。比特币市场与外汇市场的低整合对投资组合多样化和风险最小化具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 1
Essentiality of non-essential purchases for digitally influenced, bottom of pyramid customers 对于受数字影响的金字塔底层客户来说,非必要购买的必要性
Pub Date : 2020-09-15 DOI: 10.22547/ber/12.4.4
Fariha Reza, Huma Amir
This paper aims to broaden the understanding why bottom of pyramid customers in Pakistan purchase non-essential items despite their financial constraints. Qualitative data was collected through in-depth interviews from a purposive sample of 14 respondents. NVivo 12 was used to analyze data. In the light of self-determination theory, this hermeneutic inquiry suggests that bottom of pyramid customers who are negatively stereotyped on account of their consumption inadequacy, have a specific need to improve self-worth. They struggle to engage in socially relevant consumption practices, to avoid social exclusion. Internet increases their awareness about products that they consider necessary for a minimal level of decent living. This digital influence transforms their consumer behavior. Since consumer culture does not adequately define what makes up a minimally decent living, bottom of pyramid customers will keep on aspiring products that they perceive as socially relevant for a better lifestyle. These reasons make ‘non-essential’ purchases extremely essential and relevant for bottom of pyramid customers. This practice is observed in more affluent people too, however, the sacrifices that bottom of pyramid customers make in order to fulfill their need for a more respectable social standing, are relatively more critical than the trade-off that more affluent people make among their choices. This research will enable marketers to understand value requirements of bottom of pyramid customers more deeply and create more precise value propositions.
本文旨在扩大理解为什么金字塔底部的客户在巴基斯坦购买非必要的项目,尽管他们的财政限制。定性数据是通过深度访谈收集的,从一个有目的的样本14名受访者。采用NVivo 12进行数据分析。根据自我决定理论,这一解释学研究表明,金字塔底部的顾客由于消费不足而被消极地定型,他们有提高自我价值的特殊需要。他们努力参与与社会相关的消费行为,以避免社会排斥。互联网提高了他们对产品的认识,他们认为这些产品是最起码的体面生活所必需的。这种数字影响改变了他们的消费行为。由于消费文化没有充分定义什么是最低限度的体面生活,金字塔底层的消费者将继续追求他们认为与更好的生活方式有关的社会产品。这些原因使得“非必要”的购买对金字塔底层的消费者来说极其必要和相关。这种做法也出现在更富裕的人群中,然而,金字塔底部的消费者为了满足他们对更受尊敬的社会地位的需求而做出的牺牲,相对而言比更富裕的人在他们的选择中做出的权衡更为重要。本研究将使行销人员更深入了解金字塔底层顾客的价值需求,并创造更精准的价值主张。
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引用次数: 0
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Akron business and economic review
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