Producing the first navy technological forecast

During 1968 the Navy prepared and published its first technological forecast. The Navy effort involved sixteen major Laboratory/Centers and eight Systems Commands. The forecasts range from functional technologies to systems options and the overall effort is comprised of approximately five hundred individual forecasts. It was implemented, prepared, and published in seven months and it is estimated the overall forecasting task cost approximately $1.9 million. The implementation of such a task, requiring the efforts of a large number of activities in a relatively new field over a short period of time represented a challenge to all involved. We would like to share with you the experiences gained in this task—producing the first Navy Technological Forecast (NTF).

We should start by acknowledging the assistance gained from those who formally prepared forecasts some time ago, notably the Air Force and Army. Although the Navy waited until 1968 to prepare a Navy-wide forecast, several years were spent studying other forecasts for the considerations of methodology, structures, and overall approaches. The end result of this study is contained in A Proposal for a Navy Technological Forecast, Part II—Backup Report¹ which has, and still does, serve as the bible for the NTF as well as a good introduction to the subject of technological forecasting.