东江龙川站年内径流分布变化及归因分析

Xie Ping, Xu Bin, Huang Caixia, Chen Guangcai, Liu Xinyou, Tang Yasong
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引用次数: 4

摘要

由于气候变化、人类活动等因素的影响,水文序列存在一定的年际或年内变化。许多重要的工程,如水利工程的规划设计、水资源的可持续利用和优化配置等都受到了严重的影响。然而,关于年内水文要素分布特征的研究主要集中在对非均匀性的分析上,从现有的方法来看,存在非直观性和指标可比性差的缺点,很少有研究考虑不均匀性的变化是否发生在变化的环境下。因此,利用具有较好描述非均匀性的基尼系数建立年内分布水文变化的分析方法。该方法首先计算年内水文要素分布的均匀性序列,然后利用水文变化诊断系统分析该序列中是否发生了变化,如果存在变化,则采用均差法分析归因。最后,利用东江龙川站1954 ~ 2005年的逐月径流资料,计算了东江龙川站年内径流分布的变化特征,并进行了归因分析。结果表明:在1973年,年内径流分布序列出现了越来越大的跃变,表明年内径流分布趋于均衡。人类活动,尤其是枫树坝水库的建设和运行,约占60%,气候变化因素仅占40%左右。
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Alteration of inner-annual runoff distribution and attribution analysis of Longchuan station at Dongjiang River
Due to the climate change, human activities and other factors, there are some inter-annual or inner-annual alterations happened in the hydrological series. Many important works had been affected severely, such as the planning and designation of hydraulic engineering, the sustainable utilization and optimal allocation of water resources etc. However, the studies about the features of inner-annual hydrologic elements distribution are mainly focused on the analysis of the inhomogeneity, with the disadvantage of unintuition and the poor comparability of the indicators from the view of methods that used nowadays, few of the studies considering the alteration of the inhomogeneity happened or not under the changing environment. Therefore, the Gini Coefficient with the advantage of well description of inhomogeneity is used to set up the analysis method of hydrological alteration of the inner-annual distribution. In this method, the series of homogeneity of inner-annual hydrological elements distribution will be calculated first of all, then the Hydrological Alteration Diagnosis System is used to analyze whether the alteration is happened in the series or not, finally, the mean difference method will be employed to analyze the attributions if the alteration is existing. At the end of this study, with the monthly runoff data from the year of 1954 to 2005 of Longchuan Station at Dongjiang River, the alterational characteristics of inner-annual runoff distribution is calculated and the attribution analysis is conducted in succession. The results show that: at the year of 1973, the increasing jump alteration happened in the series of inner-annual runoff distribution, which means the tendency of inner-annual runoff distribution becomes equalization. About 60% of the alteration is induced by the human activities, especially the construction and operation of Fengshuba Reservoir, and the factor of climate change only accounts for about 40%.
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