气候指数;冷事件;极端的;降雨雪。

Ali J. Mohammed, Samir k. Mohammed, Jasim H. Kadhum
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于对人类健康、生态系统和农业、水文等其他方面的影响,过去几年特别关注的寒冷事件和降水条件。使用ECMWF ERA-Interim 12小时(03和15 UTC)总降水量和最小T值,覆盖伊拉克,从29°N到38°N,从39°W到48°E,共10 × 10单元格。在每个网格点,极端事件被定义为1994-2018年25年间总降水量超过99个百分位数的事件。为了进一步研究,采用混合单粒子拉格朗日积分轨迹(HYSPLIT)模型研究了导致伊拉克冷事件产生的动力学机制。极端降水模式的数量在近十年中表现出增加的趋势,尤其是在近三年前,极端降水的数量有显著增加。与NAO、EA指数无显著相关,与冬季北极涛动指数呈显著负相关。本工作的目的是研究影响中东地区的北大西洋涛动(NAO)、东大西洋指数(EA)、北极涛动指数(AO)和地中海指数(MOi)等大部分半球型的伊拉克降水和极端寒冷事件及其关系。我们推测,本研究的结果可以从大尺度的角度更好地理解伊拉克的极端寒冷和降水异常。由于对人类健康、生态系统和农业、水文等其他方面的影响,过去几年特别关注的寒冷事件和降水条件。使用ECMWF ERA-Interim 12小时(03和15 UTC)总降水量和最小T值,覆盖伊拉克,从29°N到38°N,从39°W到48°E,共10 × 10单元格。在每个网格点,极端事件被定义为1994-2018年25年间总降水量超过其第99个百分位数的事件。为了进一步研究,采用混合单粒子拉格朗日积分轨迹(HYSPLIT)模型研究了导致伊拉克冷事件产生的动力学机制。极端降水的数量模式在近十年来表现出增加的趋势,特别是近三年前极端降水的数量明显增加。与NAO、EA指数无显著相关,与冬季北极涛动指数呈显著负相关。本工作的目的是研究影响中东地区的北大西洋涛动(NAO)、东大西洋指数(EA)、北极涛动指数(AO)和地中海指数(MOi)等大部分半球型的伊拉克降水和极端寒冷事件及其关系。我们推测,本研究的结果可以从大尺度上更好地理解伊拉克的极端寒冷和降水异常。
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Climate index; Cold events; Extreme; Precipitations.
The cold events and Precipitation conditions having special attention in the last years due to their impact on human health, ecosystems, and other aspects such as agriculture, hydrology. The ECMWF ERA-Interim 12-hourly (03 and 15 UTC) total precipitations and T min in a 1o x 1o grid covering Iraq, from 29° N to 38° N and from 39° W to 48° E, with a total of 10 by 10 cells, was used. At each grid point, extremes were defined as those events in which total precipitations were above 99 th percentile for the 25 years period 1994-2018. For more investigation, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated The trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to study the dynamical mechanism that led to producing the cold events in Iraq. The number of extreme precipitations patterns shows an increasing behavior in the number of extreme events especially in the last decade, farther more there is a significant increase in the number of extreme precipitations in the last three years ago. No correlations were found with NAO, EA index, in contrast, there is a significant negative correlation with winter Arctic oscillations index. The aim of this work is studying the precipitation and cold extreme events in Iraq and their relations of most hemispheric pattern which influence in the Middle East region such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic index (EA), Artic oscillation index (AO) and Mediterranean index (MOi). We speculate that the results of this study can provide a better understanding of extreme cold and precipitations anomalies in Iraq from a large-scale view. The cold events and Precipitations conditions having special attention in the last years due to their impact on human health, ecosystems and other aspects such as agriculture, hydrology. The ECMWF ERA-Interim 12-hourly (03 and 15 UTC) total precipitations and T min in a 1o x 1o grid covering the Iraq, from 29° N to 38° N and from 39° W to 48° E, with a total of 10 by 10 cells, was used. At each grid point, extremes were defined as those events in which total precipitations were above its 99 th percentile for the 25 years’ period 1994-2018. For more investigation, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used to study the dynamical mechanism that led to produce the cold events over Iraq. The number of extreme precipitations pattern shows an increasing behavior in the number of extreme events especially in last decade, farther more there is a significant increase in the number of extreme precipitations in last three years ago. No correlations were found with NAO, EA index, in contrast, there is a significant negative correlation with winter Arctic oscillations index. The aim of this work is studying the precipitation and cold extreme events in Iraq and their relations of most hemispheric pattern which influence in the Middle East region such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic index (EA), Artic oscillation index (AO) and Mediterranean index (MOi). We speculate that the results of this study can provide a better understanding of extreme cold and precipitations anomalies in Iraq a large-scale view.
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