Wittanan Tammadid, Ketmanee Nantasom, Wichayaporn Sirksiri, Supika Vanitchung, Chaiwatchara Promjittiphong, A. Limsakul, P. Hanpattanakit
{"title":"利用偏差校正的全球气候模式对泰国东北部降水和温度的未来预估","authors":"Wittanan Tammadid, Ketmanee Nantasom, Wichayaporn Sirksiri, Supika Vanitchung, Chaiwatchara Promjittiphong, A. Limsakul, P. Hanpattanakit","doi":"10.12982/cmjs.2023.041","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) has resulted in global climate change, with the Northeast region of Thailand experiencing the highest rate of change. This poses signifi cant risks of drought and its impact on crop yield production. To better understand the potential consequences of climate change and devise suitable adaptation strategies, this study aims to project precipitation and temperature data for Northeast Thailand from 2015 to 2055, using bias-corrected global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed that the annual precipitation and temperature increased from 2015 to 2055 under both RCPs. The annual average (minimum-maximum) of precipitation from the CanESM, GFDL, MIROC5, NorESM, and ensemble mean from four models under RCP4.5 were 1,238.83 (904.28-1,629.70), 1,227.82 (865.49- 1,721.31), 1,312.78 (876.60-1,616.38), 1,350.21 (985.55-1,625.00), and 1,282.41 (1,088.43-1,461.49) mm and RCP8.5 were 1,267.96 (864.24-1,712.86), 1,222.20 (863.79-1,835.43), 1,294.07 (843.04-1,752.41), 1,353.14 (1,059.50-1,827.23), and 1,284.34 (1,116.55-1,541.63) mm, respectively. While, those of temperature under RCP4.5 were 29.27 (28.15-30.35), 29.59 (27.98-31.20), 29.12 (27.65-30.70), 28.09 (26.96-29.14), and 29.02 (28.08-29.90) °C and RCP8.5 were 29.50 (28.12-31.40), 29.68 (28.23-31.50), 29.11 (27.51-30.26), 28.37 (27.11-29.88), and 29.17 (28.08-30.66) °C, respectively. These fi ndings suggest that the annual precipitation is lower under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5, while the temperature shows an increasing trend under both RCPs. Therefore, it is evident that climate change will manifest differently in Northeast Thailand, depending on local contexts and the measures implemented today. Understanding the impacts and risks of future climate change at a local scale and identifying adaptive solutions pose signifi cant challenges for the future.","PeriodicalId":9884,"journal":{"name":"Chiang Mai Journal of Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Future Projections of Precipitation and Temperature in Northeast, Thailand using Bias-Corrected Global Climate Models\",\"authors\":\"Wittanan Tammadid, Ketmanee Nantasom, Wichayaporn Sirksiri, Supika Vanitchung, Chaiwatchara Promjittiphong, A. Limsakul, P. Hanpattanakit\",\"doi\":\"10.12982/cmjs.2023.041\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) has resulted in global climate change, with the Northeast region of Thailand experiencing the highest rate of change. This poses signifi cant risks of drought and its impact on crop yield production. To better understand the potential consequences of climate change and devise suitable adaptation strategies, this study aims to project precipitation and temperature data for Northeast Thailand from 2015 to 2055, using bias-corrected global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed that the annual precipitation and temperature increased from 2015 to 2055 under both RCPs. The annual average (minimum-maximum) of precipitation from the CanESM, GFDL, MIROC5, NorESM, and ensemble mean from four models under RCP4.5 were 1,238.83 (904.28-1,629.70), 1,227.82 (865.49- 1,721.31), 1,312.78 (876.60-1,616.38), 1,350.21 (985.55-1,625.00), and 1,282.41 (1,088.43-1,461.49) mm and RCP8.5 were 1,267.96 (864.24-1,712.86), 1,222.20 (863.79-1,835.43), 1,294.07 (843.04-1,752.41), 1,353.14 (1,059.50-1,827.23), and 1,284.34 (1,116.55-1,541.63) mm, respectively. While, those of temperature under RCP4.5 were 29.27 (28.15-30.35), 29.59 (27.98-31.20), 29.12 (27.65-30.70), 28.09 (26.96-29.14), and 29.02 (28.08-29.90) °C and RCP8.5 were 29.50 (28.12-31.40), 29.68 (28.23-31.50), 29.11 (27.51-30.26), 28.37 (27.11-29.88), and 29.17 (28.08-30.66) °C, respectively. These fi ndings suggest that the annual precipitation is lower under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5, while the temperature shows an increasing trend under both RCPs. Therefore, it is evident that climate change will manifest differently in Northeast Thailand, depending on local contexts and the measures implemented today. Understanding the impacts and risks of future climate change at a local scale and identifying adaptive solutions pose signifi cant challenges for the future.\",\"PeriodicalId\":9884,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Chiang Mai Journal of Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-07-31\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Chiang Mai Journal of Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.12982/cmjs.2023.041\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Chiang Mai Journal of Science","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.12982/cmjs.2023.041","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Future Projections of Precipitation and Temperature in Northeast, Thailand using Bias-Corrected Global Climate Models
The increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) has resulted in global climate change, with the Northeast region of Thailand experiencing the highest rate of change. This poses signifi cant risks of drought and its impact on crop yield production. To better understand the potential consequences of climate change and devise suitable adaptation strategies, this study aims to project precipitation and temperature data for Northeast Thailand from 2015 to 2055, using bias-corrected global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed that the annual precipitation and temperature increased from 2015 to 2055 under both RCPs. The annual average (minimum-maximum) of precipitation from the CanESM, GFDL, MIROC5, NorESM, and ensemble mean from four models under RCP4.5 were 1,238.83 (904.28-1,629.70), 1,227.82 (865.49- 1,721.31), 1,312.78 (876.60-1,616.38), 1,350.21 (985.55-1,625.00), and 1,282.41 (1,088.43-1,461.49) mm and RCP8.5 were 1,267.96 (864.24-1,712.86), 1,222.20 (863.79-1,835.43), 1,294.07 (843.04-1,752.41), 1,353.14 (1,059.50-1,827.23), and 1,284.34 (1,116.55-1,541.63) mm, respectively. While, those of temperature under RCP4.5 were 29.27 (28.15-30.35), 29.59 (27.98-31.20), 29.12 (27.65-30.70), 28.09 (26.96-29.14), and 29.02 (28.08-29.90) °C and RCP8.5 were 29.50 (28.12-31.40), 29.68 (28.23-31.50), 29.11 (27.51-30.26), 28.37 (27.11-29.88), and 29.17 (28.08-30.66) °C, respectively. These fi ndings suggest that the annual precipitation is lower under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5, while the temperature shows an increasing trend under both RCPs. Therefore, it is evident that climate change will manifest differently in Northeast Thailand, depending on local contexts and the measures implemented today. Understanding the impacts and risks of future climate change at a local scale and identifying adaptive solutions pose signifi cant challenges for the future.
期刊介绍：
The Chiang Mai Journal of Science is an international English language peer-reviewed journal which is published in open access electronic format 6 times a year in January, March, May, July, September and November by the Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University. Manuscripts in most areas of science are welcomed except in areas such as agriculture, engineering and medical science which are outside the scope of the Journal. Currently, we focus on manuscripts in biology, chemistry, physics, materials science and environmental science. Papers in mathematics statistics and computer science are also included but should be of an applied nature rather than purely theoretical. Manuscripts describing experiments on humans or animals are required to provide proof that all experiments have been carried out according to the ethical regulations of the respective institutional and/or governmental authorities and this should be clearly stated in the manuscript itself. The Editor reserves the right to reject manuscripts that fail to do so.
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