交通拥堵演化机制与优化

Fanrong Sun, Xueji Xu, Huimin Zhang, Di Shen, Yao Mu, Y. Chen
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摘要

由于复杂交通流量的快速增长,航线网络已经不能满足运营效率的要求。针对此类网络的高复杂性和高密度,利用机器学习研究其拥塞演化机制,并提出合理的网络优化方案。首先,参考雷达航迹数据,研究标称航路与实际航路的偏差,并利用对抗神经网络构建反映实际航路运行情况的网络。其次,飞行时间被用来表征航线网络的拥堵情况。考虑实际网络运行情况,从道路交通工程的角度对拥堵进行定义。分析了交通流的运行特性对飞行时间的影响,建立了各种拥堵指标。采用梯度助推模型选择指标特征,分析不同时期各航段指标值变化规律。利用指标-时间关系来探讨路由网络中拥塞的演化机制。第三,在此机制的基础上,建立了拥堵多目标优化模型,并运用粒子群优化算法对路线通道结构进行调整,从而求解了优化模型。最后,利用云南地区管制扇区雷达航迹数据进行计算验证。优化后的航段平均飞行时间比未优化的航段平均飞行时间短10%,验证了优化方案的可行性。
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Evolution mechanism and optimisation of traffic congestion
Air route networks can no longer meet operational efficiency requirements because of the rapid growth of complex traffic flows. Machine learning is employed to investigate the evolutionary mechanism of congestion in such networks in view of their high complexity and high density, and a reasonable network optimisation scheme is presented. First, deviations between nominal and actual routes are investigated with reference to radar track data, and a network reflecting actual route operations is constructed using adversarial neural networks. Second, flight time is used to characterise congestion in route networks. Actual network operations are considered, and congestion is defined from the perspective of road traffic engineering. The effects of the operational properties of traffic flows on flight times are analysed to establish various congestion indicators. A gradient boosting model is used to select indicator characteristics and analyse patterns in the variations of indicator values for each flight segment in distinct periods. The indicator–time relationship is leveraged to explore the evolutionary mechanism of congestion in the route network. Third, on the basis of this mechanism, a multiobjective optimisation model of congestion is formulated, and a particle swarm optimisation algorithm is executed to adjust the route passage structure, thereby solving the optimisation model. Finally, calculation validation is conducted using radar track data from the control sector of the Yunnan region. The average flight time in a route segment is 10% shorter in the optimised route network than in the nonoptimised route network, which confirms that the optimisation solution is practicable.
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