突尼斯不同城市地区气候变量和参考蒸散量的长期趋势分析

Basma Latrech, H. Ghazouani, Lasram Asma, B. Douh, Mansour Mohsen, A. Boujelben
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摘要

本文对1984-2007年突尼斯3个地点的Tmax、Tmin、Tmean、RHmean、WS和SR以及FAO-56 PM ET0等气候变量进行了趋势分析。采用Mann-Kendall检验、Sen’s Slope Estimator和线性回归检验进行分析。结果表明,各试验点的年Tmax、Tmin和Tmean均有显著增加趋势(a < 0.001)和显著增加趋势(a < 0.01)。然而,Tmin的增加速度快于Tmax,斜率在0.057 ~ 0.1 oC -1之间。RHmean的Chott-Mariem站的下降趋势不显著。然而,在克里比亚和突尼斯迦太基,发现了显著增加的趋势。在研究期间,所有台站的WS变量都有减小的趋势。然而,风速下降趋势的统计分析从突尼斯迦太基的不显著到Chott-Mariem和Kelibia的高度显著(a <= 0.001)。除Kelibia站外,各站点年平均FAO56 PM-ET0的时间变化趋势均不显著。
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Long-term trend analysis of climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration over different urban areas in Tunisia
In this study, the trend analysis of annual climatic variables including Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, RHmean, WS and SR as well as FAO-56 PM ET0 were investigated in three locations in Tunisia during 1984-2007. The Mann-Kendall Test, the Sen's Slope Estimator and linear regression tests were used for the analysis. The obtained results showed a significant increasing trends (a < 0.001) and (a < 0.01) in annual Tmax, Tmin and Tmean at all the considered locations. However, Tmin increase faster than Tmax with a slope of magnitudes ranging between 0.057 to 0.1 oC year-1. For RHmean, a non-significant tendency of decrease was observed in Chott-Mariem station. However, significantly increasing trends were found for Kelibia and Tunis Carthage. Concerning the WS variable, a tendency of decrease is observed during the study period for all the stations. Nevertheless, the statistical analysis of decreasing tendency of wind speed varied from non-significant for Tunis Carthage to highly significant (a <= 0.001) at Chott-Mariem and Kelibia. Despite the highly significant upward trend of temperature, the temporal pattern of mean annual FAO56 PM-ET0, over the different stations, did not exhibit any significant trend except for Kelibia station.
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