Intraseasonal variability of the South Vietnam upwelling, South China Sea: influence of atmospheric forcing and ocean intrinsic variability

Abstract. The South Vietnam upwelling (SVU) develops off the Vietnamese coast (South China Sea, SCS) during the southwest summer monsoon over four main areas: the northern coastal upwelling (NCU), the southern coastal upwelling (SCU), the offshore upwelling (OFU) and the shelf off the Mekong River mouth (MKU). An ensemble of 10 simulations with perturbed initial conditions were run with the fine-resolution SYMPHONIE model (1 km inshore) to investigate the daily to intraseasonal variability of the SVU and the influence of the ocean intrinsic variability (OIV) during the strong SVU of summer 2018. The intraseasonal variability is similar for the SCU, MKU and OFU, driven to the first order by the wind variability. The MKU and SCU are induced by stable ocean dynamics (the northeastward then eastward boundary current) and have very little chaotic variability. The OIV has a stronger influence on OFU. In July, OFU mainly develops along the northern flank of the eastward jet. The influence of the OIV is strongest and related to the chaotic variability of the meridional position of the jet. In August, this position is stable and OFU develops mainly in the area of positive wind curl and cyclonic eddies north of the jet. The influence of the OIV, weaker than in July, is related to the organization of this mesoscale circulation. The NCU shows a behavior different from that observed in the other areas. In the heart of summer, a large-scale circulation formed by the eastward jet and eddy dipole is well established with an alongshore current preventing the NCU development. In early and late summer, this circulation is weaker, allowing a mesoscale circulation of strongly chaotic nature to develop in the NCU area. During those periods, the OIV influence on the NCU is very strong and related to the organization of this mesoscale circulation: the NCU is favored (annihilated) by offshore-oriented (alongshore) structures.