为设拉子市城市绿地与水的分析提供一个模型系统

IF 0.1 4区 管理学 Q4 BUSINESS Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung Und Praxis Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI:10.29252/bfup.10.1.6
Mohammad Amin Bahmanibohloli, M. Haghighi, S. Moosavi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

减少国家的水资源储备是一个影响到气候、农业、植被等各个领域的问题,对这个困境的分析也是一个需要从不同角度进行分析的问题。在本文中,使用系统的动力学方法,将考虑设拉子作为伊朗主要城市之一的城市水和城市绿地之间的动态关系。采用上述方法,利用DSS Vensim软件对本研究的系统模型进行了仿真分析。研究的分析结果表明,如果按照目前的用水量继续下去,在不久的将来我们将看到市政供水的完成。在这方面,对这一问题的敏感性分析和不同情况的提出进行了审查。模拟和建模结果表明,热岛和建设是影响水量增加的重要因素之一。此外,影响设拉子市失水、用水类型和用水速度的最重要因素是植被覆盖。在这方面,模型的定量结果表明,如果每平方米的用水量可以减少40%,那么在模拟的30年期间,将节省2.42亿立方米的总水量。
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Provide a model system for the analysis of urban green space and water Shiraz Municipality
Reducing the country's water reserves is a problem that has its effects in various areas, such as climate, agriculture, vegetation, and so on, and an analysis of this dilemma is also an issue that needs to be analyzed in different ways. In this paper, using a systematic approach to the dynamics of the system, the dynamic relationship between municipal water and urban green space in Shiraz will be considered as one of the major cities of Iran. The system model of this study was simulated and analyzed using the above-mentioned approach and with DSS Vensim software. The analytical results of the research indicate that, if the water consumption is continued in accordance with the current situation, in the near future we will see the completion of municipal water. In this regard, the sensitivity analysis and the presentation of different scenarios of this problem were examined. The results of simulation and modeling indicate that thermal islands and construction are one of the most important factors affecting the increase of water. Also, the most important factors affecting water loss, type and rate of water use in the Shiraz municipality are vegetation cover. In this regard, the quantitative results of the model show that if water consumption per square meter can be reduced by 40 percent, 242 million cubic meters of total water will be saved in the 30-year period of simulation.
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